For some college quarterbacks, the transition to the NFL can be a severe reality check. Even though professional offensive coordinators have done all kinds of things to adapt things for the comfort of incoming quarterbacks coming from spread and especially Air Raid offenses — there is no better example than what Andy Reid has done for Patrick Mahomes — there are other quarterbacks who, when robbed of the benefits of a wider field and the ability to stretch defenses beyond their logical breaking points, suffer the differences in the NFL to career-ending degrees.
In the case of Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker and the explosive potential he showed in Josh Heupel’s Air Raid offense, there are a lot of questions about his NFL viability beyond the fact that he’s recovering from the torn ACL he suffered last November, or the fact that he’s 25 years old. It’s a question that’s been around ever since quarterbacks tried to transition from the Air Raid “easy button” to the more complicated structures of the NFL, and right now, Hooker, who completed 229 of 329 passes for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2022, is the one in the crucible.
Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup told me at the scouting combine that while he appreciates what Hooker brings to the NFL based on his tape, there are legitimate concerns about the transition.
“It’s more of a true Air Raid offense than most teams run in college football,” Cosell told me of Tennessee’s offense. “The splits are exceedingly wide, and because the wide side of the field is wider in college football than on an NFL field, it’s really a factor. So, what you rarely get is receivers pressed. They get free access off the ball. Jalin Hyatt can explode off the ball, and he had very good hands to catch the ball, often on the move. Just by its very nature, there’s not a lot of throws to the middle of the field. I happen to like Hooker’s skill set quite a bit, and his skill set is clearly translate able to the NFL, but he’s probably going to be one of those quarterbacks that, when he gets to the NFL, it’ll look like there’s 15 defenders on defense. Especially on those throws with timing and anticipation over the middle of the field.
“I’m not saying he can’t make those throws — that’s not the point. The game is played more in the middle of the field in the NFL, and those throws are more part and parcel. There’s a learning curve to those kinds of throws by NFL standards. Again, we’re not saying he can’t make those throws; just that he hasn’t done a lot of them. And even the anticipatory throws he made were more open-type anticipatory throws than the stick-type tight-window throws.”
I share Greg’s concerns overall regarding the transferability of the Volunteers’ offense, but I’m also of a mind that Hooker is coming into an NFL that, again, has learned to be far more hospitable to those quarterbacks benefiting from those types of offenses. With that in mind, let’s look for examples of Hooker making the types of throws he’ll have to make in the NFL, no matter how friendly his new offense is to his current palette.
Throwing into tight windows.
When it comes to not only making tight-window throws over the middle, but also reading his receivers, I like this 14-yard completion to Ramel Keyton against South Carolina in Hooker’s final college game. He started by looking the deep safety off to the other side of the field, read the outside front-side receiver as an unfavorable look, and hit Keyton in stride where the receiver could get the ball, and the defender couldn’t.
And on this 43-yard pass to Keyton against Florida in Week 4, Hooker had to wait for his receiver to get any separation from cornerback Jason Marshall Jr., who was making that pretty tough. The solution was to get the ball past Marshall at the right time, which Hooker did.
Creating explosive plays in tough situations.
The NFL classifies explosive passing plays as those plays gaining 16 yards or more, and when throwing passes of 16 or more air yards dead over the middle in 2022, Hooker completed seven of 14 passes for 171 yards, 134 air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.2.
How did C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, the consensus top two quarterbacks in this class, fare on such passes in 2022?
Stroud: 12 completions in 23 attempts for 391 yards, 270 air yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 97.6.
Young: Two completions in 11 attempts for 63 yards, 58 air yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 50.9.
Of course, we then have to look at the nature of these plays. Were Hooker’s receivers open on an every-down basis on these explosive plays, or was he making something out less than everything?
On this 78-yard completion to Jalin Hyatt against Alabama in Week 7, was Hooker assisted by Hyatt’s preposterous downfield speed? Sure. Did he also make a stick throw to his target between two converging defenders with timing and placement? It kinda looks like he did.
This 28-yard touchdown pass to Cedric Tillman against Pitt in Week 2 wasn’t over the middle, but I think it presented another example of Hooker reading the situation well and capitalizing when the opportunity arose. Pitt clogged the middle of the field here, so Hooker’s best option was to wait for Tillman to get open against fairly good lockdown coverage to the boundary. This he did, while stepping up in the pocket to give himself the needed time for everything to play out.
Were there plays in the Vols’ offense in which the defense was simply overwhelmed, and Hooker took advantage? Absolutely. But I think there are enough examples of Hooker making the kinds of NFL throws required to strike a balance between what he did in college, and what he’ll be expected to do at the next level.
Hooker and his teammates are tired of hearing it.
Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, and Darnell Wright all came to the scouting combine expecting questions about their college offense, and all availed themselves well.
Hooker on his receivers getting free releases: “I mean, I can’t help that defenders can’t guard my receivers. My job is to get them the ball. A lot of these questions about one-sided reads, we have pure progressions and routes: it’s not my fault that my first read is getting open.
“We have pre-snap looks: one-high, two-high. Double footwork combo. We have progressions with an alert, an option. Any of these questions: they’re cool and all, but when you dig into our offense, just watch the film and you’ll understand how fast we are going, I have to process a lot of information. And communicate with everyone.:
Hyatt on (not) playing against press coverage: “Going against press, I did it in practice and not only that, I had some games that I went against press. You know, we look at my highlights and you look at things like that you can see nothing but vertical game, nothing but deep passes, this and that, People called me “Go Route,” or he only does this and that, but if you actually really get in depth with my film, really look at my games, I have other things in there.
“You know, I have been running digs, scoring on slants, doing a lot of other things that people thing that I cannot do and actually being explosive with it. Like I said, I’m proud to be here at this combine so I can show on the field work when we do it I can show I can run routes so I can do what I have to do so. I’m ready for the moment.”
Wright on why Hooker will succeed in the NFL: “First of all, he’s just so smart. He’s trying to find every way to win. He’ll even ask me sometimes, when we’re throwing this route, can you maybe jump set so [the defender will] get his hands down faster so I can throw it over the middle. I’m like I can do whatever you want me to do. He’s such a real leader. You have guys who are front runners who talk the talk but that gets blared out. You hear a guy always yelling, it’s like, ‘Shut up.’ But everything he does is intentional. He’s the leader of the ship. You saw that this year.”
And there you have it.
Focus on what Hendon Hooker can do, not what you think he can't.
Will Hendon Hooker be a “system quarterback” in the NFL as he was in the NCAA? Without question, but that can be said of any quarterback ever to play the position. Every quarterback is a product of scheme and talent around him to a greater or lesser degree, and no quarterback can do it alone.
The question with Hooker is not whether his college offense is transferable to the NFL — it’s whether his skill set is, and I think there’s no question that he can succeed with the kind of coaching staff that will maximize his attributes as it develops the areas where he needs work.
Again, this is true of any quarterback.
I found it interesting that when I asked Hooker at the combine about the transition to the NFL, he mentioned that as much as NFL coaches and evaluators were asking him in meetings how he could work in next-level offenses, they were also asking him about the concepts he used at Tennessee — perhaps to adopt a few ideas on his way to the NFL.
Hooker can make stick throws into tight windows. He can adjust to having to re-set from pressure or covered receivers. He can run a complex offense, and the extent to which he’ll be seen for that is in the hands of the NFL, but the tape clearly shows that one should not automatically discount his professional potential simply because he ran a certain offense.
The job of evaluation is in part to extract what a player can do in an offense that may make no sense at your level. Hooker will be a challenge in that regard, but I have a feeling that one NFL team will ultimately be rewarded for the work.
