Surprise exits, stunning upsets, and wild finishes are hallmarks of the modern playoff format in NASCAR. However, there are several signs that point to this year being unlike any that came before it. There are familiar faces out and unexpected names in, all wrapped around a schedule that has doubled the number of drafting tracks and road courses. While the dominant driver has fallen short of the title before, this could be the year where someone truly unexpected wins it all.
Chaos factor benefitting the underdogs
For the very first time, the final 10 races will feature two road courses and two drafting tracks. Joining the Charlotte ROVAL and Talladega Superspeedway will be Watkins Glen International and Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Olympic break forced NASCAR to shake up the schedule, and now these races are evenly split between the first two rounds.
That is key for drivers such as Harrison Burton, who would normally struggle for results on the standard tracks that cover most of the schedule. But since its reconfiguration, Atlanta now races more like a superspeedway. Earlier this year, the race featured 10 cautions with 28 of 37 drivers involved in a crash. It ended in a dramatic three-wide photo finish where Daniel Suarez earned Trackhouse Racing's only victory of the 2024 season so far. The advantage teams such as Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing enjoy will be severely blunted by the addition of another drafting track, where anyone can win and one wrong move can leave title favourites with disastrous finishes.
The same can be said for Talladega in the second round, which is a fixture in the playoffs and has always stood as the most dreaded race. Surprise playoff entries can utilise these drafting tracks in back-to-back rounds, and even vault themselves into the third round by simply avoiding the carnage or even stealing another win.
The Charlotte ROVAL is another race that has produced no shortage of chaos. With how strategies play out at road courses, drivers often have to sacrifice track position for stage points, jumbling the order and putting these drivers deep in the field for the restarts that follow. Now, this will happen twice with the inclusion of Watkins Glen in the opening round.
Watch: Race Rewind: Crazy race, photo finish at Atlanta
Four of the first six races in the playoffs are these unpredictable tracks, providing ample opportunity for underdogs to make a truly deep run into the playoffs. Burton and Austin Cindric have won Cup races at drafting tracks. Suarez's first career win came on a road course. Chase Briscoe is another driver who can benefit from these circuits.
Meanwhile, former Cup champions like Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr have never even won at a drafting track. Larson has crashed out in four of the last five races at Atlanta, showcasing just how chaotic this track has become since its reconfiguration.
The playoff spoilers stealing the show
With so many surprises in the playoffs, regular contenders are now sitting outside the championship fight. Two-time champion Kyle Busch failed to make the cut for the first time in 12 years, ending the regular season with back-to-back runner-up finishes. He is currently trying to keep a streak of 19 consecutive seasons with a race win alive, which is already a NASCAR record. Chris Buescher has the fourth-best average finish of anyone this year, and he's also out. Ross Chastain has not missed the playoffs since joining Trackhouse at the beginning of the Next Gen era in 2022. Just last year, he became the first non-playoff driver in the elimination era to win the title-decider, disrupting the Championship 4 finale in a way never seen before. Bubba Wallace's season has been a struggle, but 23XI Racing just won the regular season title with Tyler Reddick. Both of Wallace's Cup wins came at tracks featured in the playoffs - Talladega and Kansas.
These are drivers who no longer have anything to lose. They are so far ahead of those from 21st on back in the standings that stage points aren't even going to be a thought. They are only here to win races, and to prove that they belonged in the playoffs.
There are also those deeper in the points table fighting for their racing lives (and livelihoods). It's still unclear where Corey LaJoie, Zane Smith and Ryan Preece will be in 2025. They aren't the only drivers with question marks surrounding their future, so the drafting tracks will be a huge opportunity for them to make a statement win, similar to what Burton did at Daytona.
Oh, and this should also be mentioned: Road course aces Juan Pablo Montoya and Shane van Gisbergen will be competing at Watkins Glen.
