The deluge of records, stats and anomalies in the game can be so overwhelming you lose track of what’s meaningful. Most leadoff homers, most three-run homers, back-to-back 30–30 seasons, fastest strikeout pitch, most consecutive losses to start a season while trailing (thank you, Rockies) … it never stops.
But let’s pause for a moment and appreciate that Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers has a real chance to become the first player in baseball history to reach 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases. He enters the weekend with 44 homers and 46 steals.
You might be asking yourself, “What’s the big deal?” If so, it’s time to have a conversation with your inner skeptical self to see if this latest “record” has real meaning behind it. And that conversation might go something like this:
Hello? Wasn’t Ohtani already the first to 43–43 and 44–44?
Yes, but ever since man used his fingers to devise base numerical systems, we grasp units of 10 much easier. Just accept this is how your brain is wired and move on.
Lots of players have combined power and speed. Ronald Acuna Jr. went 41–73 only last year. And of course, it’s been lodged in our Base Ten brains as the first 40–70 season. So, what makes this unique?
It’s big because 50 is an especially huge number of home runs. If Ohtani gets there it will mark only—get this—the 50th 50-homer in history. (Hey, another 50–50!).
Now consider the previous 49 times a player hit 50 homers. The most stolen bases in a 50-homer season is … not even halfway to 50! Willie Mays went 51–24 in 1955 and Alex Rodriguez went 54–24 in 2007. Ohtani would have more than twice as many stolen bases as any player who hit 50 home runs.
Okay, but aren’t stolen bases way easier with the new rules?
Yes and no. The rules (bigger bases, limitations on pickoff throws) were put in place last season to combat the influence of analytic-heavy front offices that for years reduced the game’s aesthetics in the name of cold efficiency. The number crunchers did not believe the success rate of steal attempts, which was 71.3% from 2000 to ‘15, was worth taking the chance.
Baseball officials correctly figured that to make the game more dynamic and less static they would need to boost the success rate to near 80% to convince front offices to embrace the stolen base. And yes, it has worked.
Stolen bases went up 43% last year with the highest success rate ever, 80.6%.
They are up again this year, though only 3%. But the success rate has gone down, to 78.7%. Teams have adjusted by defending the running game better.
So that means this stolen base environment is like nothing we’ve ever seen?
No. It is not anomalous. It only seems that way because of how static the game was for the past decade or more. In terms of the rate of stolen bases per game (1.48), we simply have returned to the 1980s and early ‘90s. And how great is that?
Think Ohtani has it much easier than Rickey Henderson? Not as much as you think. In 1988, when Henderson stole 93 bases, baserunners stole 1.58 bases per game at a success rate of 70%. Today it is 1.48 bags per game at a 78.7% success rate.
Ohtani is a big dude. Give me a comp for a guy his size who runs like this.
There isn’t one. It’s just one more reason the comp most used for Ohtani is a mythical creature, the unicorn.
Ohtani is listed at 6’4” and 210 pounds. Given how Ohtani has added strength in the past three seasons, that weight seems a bit outdated. But let’s go with 210. Here are the most stolen bases by any player at least 6’4” and weighing at least 210 pounds:
Is Ohtani running in spots just to chase 50 bags?
No. He has not attempted a stolen base in a game with the Dodgers up or down by more than four runs. Most of his steals (24) have come with two outs, when a big inning is less likely. And his knack for picking the right pitch in the right count is uncanny.
Ohtani has been caught stealing only four times—once by a pickoff (Cal Quantrill) and three times by a catcher (Logan O’Hoppe, Carson Kelly and Patrick Bailey, only after a replay review overturned a safe call). He is 23-for-23 since July 22.
Only five players in history have stolen as many bases as Ohtani and been harder to catch. None of them are as big as Ohtani.
People always compare Ohtani to Babe Ruth. Anybody else come to mind?
Lou Brock.
Ohtani is not going to steal 118 bases in a season or 938 in his career. But Ohtani reminds me of Brock with the way he always slides feet first and never comes off the bag. He is a textbook, old-school slider who never has to worry about damage to his pitching hand. Davey Lopes and Maury Wills were two other elite base stealers who went into the bag feet first.
By the way, it took Brock 191 attempts to get his first 132 stolen bases (69.1%). Ohtani needed just 169 to reach 132 (78.1%).
Since 1900, only three players with 100 career steals have a stolen base percentage that high while also posting at least a 150 adjusted OPS: Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle and Barry Bonds.
To continue to run successfully when people know you are running is an impressive skill. As Brock said in 1974, “I don't steal the base as much as I take it. To me the word steal contains the element of surprise, and I don't surprise anyone when I head for second base. The other clubs would be surprised if I didn't.”
Well, what about the Babe?
Ruth? Forget it, at least when it comes to baserunning. Ohtani this year passed the Babe in career steals (132–123). The eras are entirely different. Ruth’s career percentage was just 51.5%, which sounds ridiculously low. But in the 1920s the major league average (pre-analytics) was 53.8%. People took chances without knowing percentages.
And though Ruth infamously was thrown out stealing second to end the 1926 World Series, that was because the batter, Bob Meusel, put on a hit-and-run play and swung through the pitch, leaving Ruth hung out to dry. So please don’t give the Babe a bad rap on that one.
The Dodgers, sabermetric influencers, are letting Ohtani run. They already have more stolen bases than they had last season—more than any season in the past decade. Are smart baseball people now embracing the stolen base?
Yes. The tide is turning, and maybe the attention Ohtani generates creates even more of an open mindset to the stolen base. (Let’s see if he runs this much when he returns to pitching next year.)
No 100-stolen base team has won the World Series since the 2019 Nationals. This year every contender except the Braves, Yankees, Twins, Astros and Orioles should blow by that threshold.
The Brewers, a crew as fun as it gets in the big leagues these days, are averaging more than one stolen base per game. No World Series winner has done that since the 1993 Blue Jays.
Teams tend to get more conservative in the postseason. Stolen bases last postseason dropped 12% from the regular season rate. I can’t imagine Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Cleveland, the best running teams among contenders, losing their aggressiveness.
Okay, you’ve convinced me 50–50 is a big deal. But will we get to see it?
Have you been watching Ohtani these seven seasons? Never doubt what the big man can do.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Why Shohei Ohtani's Quest for 50–50 Isn't Just Another Number.
