It’s Pierre Poilievre’s Canada now. That’s what the pundits say. That’s what the numbers say. It’s a brave, perhaps deluded, outlier who will take odds on the Liberal government remaining in power after the next election. Between February 15 and 21, Abacus Data found 41 percent of surveyed Canadians intended to vote Conservative, well ahead of the Liberals, who sit at 24 percent. Over at 338 Canada, a March projection based on a weighted average of polls had the Tories at 211 seats, compared to 63 for the Liberals. All that shakes out to a greater than 99 percent chance Poilievre wins a—possibly massive—majority government in 2025.
The Liberals, in their heart of hearts, must realize how bad things are—not that you’ll get any of them to admit as much. In December, Zita Astravas, long-time Liberal adviser, responded to talk of Justin Trudeau stepping down by claiming, “He performs best when there’s a challenge ahead of him.” There is indeed a challenge ahead. The “hope and hard work” spell that captured voters in 2015 has fizzled. People are strapped for cash, struggling, angry. The national average home price is now nearly $660,000; the average asking rent for a one-bedroom apartment is $2,000 a month. Households have racked up a record amount of debt. Consumers are missing credit card payments. More than 6.5 million Canadians can’t find a family doctor. Interest rates remain high.
