Kadarius Toney is hurt. The Chiefs shouldn’t be worried.
Toney underwent knee surgery for a meniscus tear Tuesday morning after injuring the knee two days earlier while fielding punts. It’s unclear whether Toney will return for Kansas City’s Sept. 7 season opener against the Lions, leaving a question of how his much-speculated breakout campaign might start.
This offseason, general manager Brett Veach allowed receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman to leave in free agency. While Hardman was essentially replaced by Richie James, Smith-Schuster’s 933 receiving yards left a bigger hole. So when Kansas City struck out in its months-long pursuit of free agent DeAndre Hopkins, the belief was Toney would step up and become the top wideout target.
Now, much of Toney’s past issues are being dredged up, after he played only 19 games over his first two years with the Giants and Chiefs.
Still, for Kansas City, Toney’s availability is more bonus than necessity.
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Last year, the Chiefs remade their receivers room by trading away Tyreek Hill before watching Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Josh Gordon leave in free agency. They were replaced by Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and rookie Skyy Moore.
The result? A championship, while quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for a career-high 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns en route to his second MVP award.
In fact, Mahomes’s two title runs have come in the only two years when he hasn’t had multiple players with 1,000-plus receiving yards. In both 2019 and ’22, tight end Travis Kelce easily broke the threshold but was alone in the achievement.
And research shows that’s more normal than outlier.
Of the past 30 Super Bowl champions, only six teams had two players notch at least 1,000 receiving yards. Furthermore, eight went without a single player reaching that mark.
The average receiving output for the second-leading receiver on a Super Bowl champion over that span? Just 827.7 yards.
In Tom Brady’s seven Super Bowl seasons with the Patriots and Buccaneers, he never had multiple 1,000-yard receivers. In fact, from those past 30 years, 22 Super Bowls have been won by quarterbacks either in the Hall of Fame or surefire entrants to come (Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Brady, Mahomes). A whopping 17 came without multiple 1,000-yarders. Include Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, and it becomes 19 of 24.
As for Kansas City’s specific situation, Mahomes has demonstrated he can win with an ensemble cast or a pair of stars. It’ll be the former this year, and it was the same last season, when Mahomes produced his greatest output.
Doing a math exercise, it’s easy to see Mahomes having another spectacular season even if Toney is an afterthought.
Here are the 2022 receiving totals of players still on the roster (100-yard minimum):
- Kelce: 1,338 yards
- Valdes-Scantling: 687 yards
- Jerick McKinnon: 512 yards
- Watson: 315 yards
- Noah Gray: 299 yards
- Moore: 250 yards
- Toney: 171 yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 151 yards
- Isiah Pacheco: 130 yards
- Jody Fortson: 108 yards
Total: 3,961 yards
Here’s a projection of how things could play out in 2023:
- Kelce: 1,200 yards
- Valdes-Scantling: 650 yards
- McKinnon: 350 yards
- Watson: 350 yards
- Rashee Rice: 300 yards
- James: 450 yards
- Noah Gray: 400 yards
- Moore: 500 yards
- Toney: 400 yards
- Edwards-Helaire: 100 yards
- Pacheco: 150 yards
- Fortson: 150 yards
Total: 5,000 yards
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This would account for decreases from Mahomes’s top two receivers, a regression from James despite going from Daniel Jones to the game’s reigning MVP, minor upticks from a few younger veterans and moderate production from a second-round rookie in Rice.
Ultimately, as long as Mahomes and Kelce are healthy, the offensive line is effective and coach Andy Reid is still designing the scheme, the Chiefs needn’t worry about much else when controlling the ball.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Toney isn’t valuable. While he barely contributed during the regular season after his trade to Kansas City on Oct. 28—14 receptions for 171 yards and two touchdowns in seven games—Toney’s presence was evident in Super Bowl LVII against the Eagles.
On that night, Toney caught a go-ahead, fourth-quarter touchdown pass. Minutes later, he had the longest punt return in Super Bowl history with a 65-yard effort, setting up another seven points.
During the regular season, the Chiefs are loaded enough to win consistently without a litany of players including Toney. Come the postseason, when a few plays often make the difference between winning and losing, Toney’s ability to create chunk yardage will become more important.
Toney is sidelined for now, and Kansas City won’t fret much. But come January, he’ll be a handy piece on a team looking to make history.
