“Pessimists are usually right and optimists are usually wrong,” Thomas Friedman wrote, “but all the great changes have been accomplished by optimists.” Contemporary politicians have taken note. Voters reward boosterism with high office, whereas dour experts rarely make it onto the ballot paper. So we elect Boris Johnson, but leave it to Andrew Bailey, Bank of England Governor, to deliver all the bad news.
Might there be some wisdom in shunning doomsters? Take inflation: the more we talk it up, the more probable it is to come about. Likewise, the more Bailey shouts “recession” from the rooftops, the more likely businesses are to anticipate a slowdown, and thus rein in investment.
