As noises began to grow more ominous about the idea of Kalvin Phillips leaving Leeds for Manchester City this summer, a debate broke out on social media. For many Leeds fans, the 'Yorkshire Pirlo' is an irreplaceable player because of what he represents. In Phillips, Leeds had a fan on the pitch. Not only that, they had their first England international whilst still at the club, after over a decade of Leeds academy products having to leave Elland Road in order to realise their dreams of playing for their country.
Not only that, there was a tweet of a video clip containing a Sky Sports graphic which was shared regularly. This was to demonstrate the on-field importance of Phillips to the Whites over the last few years, with their win rate significantly lower without the England midfielder.
Given that Leeds have now agreed a deal with City, with the player expected to join the Premier League champions next week, there is concern about how the Whites will cope without their academy product. Of course, Phillips will be replaced but -given the stark difference in their ability to win games without Phillips - fans will be alarmed until they see how any new signing will adapt to the team.
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However, whilst not wanting to diminish how important Phillips' contribution over the four season since Marcelo Bielsa arrived at Leeds in summer 2018, it should be said that there is more to the stats than meets the eye. Most importantly, it should be noted that the Whites have never had a like-for-like replacement for Phillips, in the case of his absence.
The closest they have ever had to replacing Phillips has been Adam Forshaw, who is more of a classic number eight. The midfielder missed the entirety of the first season back in the Premier League with an injury, but he did cover for Phillips at times in 21/22. For the most part though, Phillips has been covered for by defenders playing in midfield. This saw Pascal Struijk and Robin Koch play in the defensive midfield role often under Bielsa's management. Since Jesse Marsch took over, a two man defensive midfield partnership has meant that the role is less specialised and saw parings of Mateusz Klich and Forshaw, as well as Koch and Klich or Koch and Forshaw.
Also, the stats for 21/22 require a closer look in the right context. There is a narrative that Leeds would have been safe in the Premier League far more easily had Phillips been able to start more thank the 45% of the games which he did. However, Leeds' win percentage was less than 3% higher with Phillips in the team than it was without last term, showing that the difference was not quite as stark as imagined.
It is also important to recognise which games Phillips missed in 21/22. The England midfielder did not start in 20 of the 38 Premier League fixtures, and did not feature at all in seven of the 12 fixtures against the Big Six. Leeds managed to lose all 12 of those fixtures, which was a key reason why they struggled so badly in the league and - whilst Phillips' availability might have helped them in the games he missed - the team still lost all the games against them that he did play, conceding 14 and scoring only twice.
With that in mind, there is little to suggest that the results would have been different, had Phillips played in them. If he had even played half of those Big Six games which he missed, the win % argument would not be being made.
Leeds will hope to replace Phillips with a high caliber player in the next few weeks, as nobody is under any illusion that they have lost one of their best players. With Marc Roca having already arrived, and whoever the Phillips replacement should be, Victor Orta will aim to be providing Marsch with better options over all, so that the Whites will not find themselves in such a situation as to be overly reliant on one midfielder. It is now vital that the director of football delivers on that signing, in order to put to bed the narrative that the Whites can't cope without Phillips. If the signing is the wrong one, the with and without Phillips stats will continue to be waved around in anger.
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