JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon downplayed the threat of a private credit meltdown, while Goldman Sachs signaled that its private credit business is in good shape.
Why it matters: The trend of investors exiting private credit funds has raised concerns that a blowup in nonbank lending could infect the broader financial markets.
The big picture: Dimon noted Monday in his annual letter to shareholders that the leveraged private credit market totals $1.8 trillion, while investment-grade bonds total $13 trillion and residential mortgage securities and loans also total $13 trillion.
- "In the great scheme of things, private credit probably does not present a systemic risk," Dimon wrote.
Zoom in: His comments came on the same day that Goldman Sachs disclosed a Q1 letter to its credit shareholders stating that repurchase requests represented less than 5% of shares as of Dec. 31.
- That's lower than the firm's quarterly repurchase cap, signaling that investors aren't panicking.
- "We believe these results highlight the strong position of GS Credit relative to the broader non-traded BDC industry," the firm said in the letter, referring to business development companies.
Yes, but: "Fears that artificial intelligence could erode the earnings power of software companies and weaken their ability to repay loans are rippling through the private credit industry, a key lender to the technology sector, prompting investors to reassess their exposure, redemption risks and fundraising prospects," Reuters reported Monday.
- And Dimon acknowledged that a downturn in credit, "which will happen one day," will lead to "higher than expected" losses on "all leveraged lending."
- "This is because credit standards have been modestly weakening pretty much across the board," he wrote. And "by and large, private credit does not tend to have great transparency or rigorous valuation 'marks' of their loans — this increases the chance that people will sell if they think the environment will get worse — even if actual realized losses barely change."
The bottom line: JPMorgan and Goldman aren't sweating private credit, but risks remain.
