Entering Saturday, the 2023-24 Houston Rockets (10-9) own the NBA’s No. 4 rating on defense, No. 20 rating on offense, and No. 13 overall rating. At the 19-game mark, it’s a significant amount of data when considering the 82-game regular season is nearly a quarter complete.
Led by new head coach Ime Udoka, Houston’s defense — which was fortified last offseason by bringing in key veterans such as Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks — appears to be quite legitimate. Even in their losses, the Rockets have usually been very competitive.
The questions surround the offense, which didn’t have the same amount of difference makers brought in during free agency. The primary playmakers are VanVleet and a pair of third-year prospects in big man Alperen Sengun and shooting guard Jalen Green, with that trio easily leading the Rockets in touches per game.
VanVleet’s production has been relatively steady, but at 6-foot-1, it can be difficult for him to consistently create his own shot late in close games. That often places the burden on Green and Sengun, and 21-year-old prospects are usually inconsistent from game to game.
For the most part, Sengun has been an exception to that rule. Green has not. But on the good nights — when efficient production by Green lifts Houston’s offense from below average to at least average — that’s typically enough to win, especially when paired with elite defense.
Consider these remarkable splits:
- In wins, Green averages 21.7 points on 46.1% shooting and 36.4% on 3-pointers. In losses, those slip to 16.2 points on 38.6% shooting and 30.8% from 3-point range.
- Green shoots 6.5 free throws in wins and 3.9 in losses.
- The Rockets are 7-1 when Green scores at least 23 points.
- Green has led Houston in scoring nine times in 19 games, and the Rockets are 7-2 in those games. They are 3-7 when Green is not the leading scorer.
I think it's a pretty simple formula, when the #Rockets get an efficient Jalen Green to go with the rest, they're a very good team.
Over his 2+ year career, that's happened disproportionately at home. Tonight was a hopeful sign vs. defending champs that he can do it on road, too https://t.co/47YXIFUS4L
— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) December 9, 2023
The Rockets are 9-1 at home and 1-8 away, and Green’s production has been much better at Toyota Center — as it was for much of his first two seasons. That could account for some of the discrepancy.
But it’s worth noting that Green has begun showing signs of life on the road, which could indicate that some growth and development is occurring. In two recent games at Denver, the reigning NBA champions, Green was Houston’s top scorer while averaging 25.5 points (55.2% FG, 41.2% on 3-pointers) and 5.0 assists per game. That includes Friday’s win, the team’s first on the road this season.
“For him, [the key] is not to take a back seat regardless of who is on the court,” Udoka said of Green. “Obviously, we have a sharing of duties when Fred [VanVleet] is handling the ball. But the main thing we want is for him to be aggressive within the game.”
“Teams are guarding him different ways, and paying attention to him in different ways,” Udoka said. “They’re putting different defenders on him. That’s a progression for him… to learn the game and how they’re guarding him. But, the first step is to be aggressive. I think when he does that, everything else falls into place.”
I asked Coach Udoka what is the key for Jalen Green to become more consistent
“For him it is not to take a backseat regardless of who is on the court” pic.twitter.com/sUwENgsTz5
— Lachard Binkley (@BinkleyHoops) December 6, 2023
Another source of optimism could be the schedule. Houston has currently played the fewest games of any NBA team, and Green has looked particularly out of rhythm when there are long stretches between games. With three or more days of rest, Green averages 14.3 points per game on 34.6% shooting and 25.0% on 3-pointers.
But the schedule will even out in the coming weeks, with the Rockets having recently begun a stretch with 30 games in 57 days.
Whatever the reasons, the bottom line is that the 2023-24 Rockets are competitive with an inefficient Green and legitimately good when he is efficient. It’s also worth remembering that Green, drafted No. 2 overall in the 2021 first round, is eligible for a contract extension next offseason. Thus, in the bigger picture, the team has every incentive to try and learn what its athletic 6-foot-6 guard is capable of.
With that in mind, as Houston attempts to make a push for this season’s play-in tournament and perhaps beyond, Green’s development is increasingly becoming the most significant variable.
