Small-company stocks are often the canaries in the market’s coal mine. Typically defined as stocks with a market value of less than $10 billion, their prices usually peak and then decline before large-company stock prices do in anticipation of a top in the economic cycle or a rise in interest rates. Similarly, “they tend to outperform early, when it seems like the worst is behind us,” says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Lately, the canaries have been quite chirpy. Over the past six months, the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, gained a robust 9.1%. It led the S&P 500 index for part of that stretch, a good sign, given that the Russell has lagged the big-company benchmark in seven of the past 10 calendar years. (Returns and data are through March 31, unless otherwise noted.)
