The San Francisco 49ers will enter Sunday’s showdown with the Green Bay Packers ranked fourth in the NFL in overall grade at Pro Football Focus, sixth in DVOA, third in adjusted net yards/passing attempt, fifth in expected points added per play and second in yards gained per play.
But Kyle Shanahan’s team is also 5-5 and haven’t won back-to-back games all season, making Sunday’s visit to Lambeau Field something close to a must-win game if the 49ers are going to stay in the race in the NFC playoffs.
So, what gives?
Kyle Madson, the managing editor of Niners Wire, helped us answer the question.
“The bottom line with the 49ers is that their top-heavy roster is coming back to bite them. I could list 20 reasons they’ve lost each of their five games, and that’s sort of the problem. There’s not one issue every week. Sometimes it’s special teams. Sometimes it’s penalties. Sometimes it’s their offensive line. Sometimes it’s their pass rush. As a result they’ve smoked fourth-quarter leads in three of their five losses.
I’m not even sure blaming injuries is correct. They’ve just not gotten enough from some of their starters. Deebo Samuel looks washed. Fred Warner has been struggling behind perhaps the worst defensive line they’ve had in the last half decade. Their offseason acquisition of Leonard Floyd up front hasn’t paid off. It’s been a mess and the further we get into the season it appears this year’s iteration of the 49ers just isn’t very good. I’m expecting some significant offseason changes because staying competitive is going to involve a real evolution from San Francisco in its next chapter.”
The 49ers have lost four games by one score and three by three points or fewer. They gave up late leads in losses to the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. Injuries have played a major factor week to week. The defense isn’t as dominant. And it’s possible the weight of recent playoff failures — the 49ers have lost in the Super Bowl or NFC title game in four of the last five seasons — is providing a crushing force on the 2024 team.
Margins are razor thin in the NFL, even for statistically dominant teams. The 49ers haven’t been great late in games, especially defensively. Christian McCaffrey has missed time. Brandon Aiyuk is out. Javon Hargrave is out. The NFC West is surprisingly competitive. The passing game hasn’t been as deadly efficient. Add it all up, and the 49ers — while looking great on paper — haven’t always looked it in the win-loss column.
The 49ers might be a sleeping giant, a cornered animal. Can the Packers provide the kill shot on Sunday at Lambeau Field?
