A new poll has revealed the ongoing rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, with the conservative party beating out Labor to become the most popular party in the nation.
The figures were released earlier this week, and show that One Nation, once considered a fringe party, now has the primary support for most of the country.
It might be a startling development in Aussie politics, but what do the actual poll results say? And what might be behind the recent sway towards Hanson and her politics?
What do the One Nation polls say?
The polls come courtesy of Roy Morgan, which conducted a survey of respondents within the period of June 1 to June 7. The results were gathered based on a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,631 voters.
It is the first time a Roy Morgan poll has shown One Nation as the most popular party in terms of primary support, meaning the percentage of people who would select the party as their first preference if an election was to take place now.
Almost 30 per cent (29.5) of the respondents said One Nation had their primary support, more than any other party mentioned in the poll. That percentage was higher than the support for the Labor party, which sat at 26 per cent and the Coalition, which was 17.5 per cent.
The poll showed a 2.5 per cent rise in popularity for One Nation since the last survey. The Greens also enjoyed a bump, from five per cent to 15.5 per cent, but that surge was dwarfed by One Nation’s.
Interestingly, the most recent poll follows others in February showing that One Nation had leap-frogged the Coalition but was still trailing somewhat far behind Labor.
Important note: the primary vote is not the same as winning government. If an election was called right now, Labor would be returned to government under Australia’s preferential system.
Still, One Nation’s popularity being ahead of the major parties, and to such a stark degree, is eye-catching, and suggests a major realignment among Aussies. But why?
Why is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation surging in popularity?
According to Roy Morgan, last month’s divisive Federal Budget saw voters abandon the major parties in droves, as the public rejected Labor Treasurer’s Jim Chalmers‘ policies but found little to inspire them in the Coalition — traditionally Labor’s opposition.
Election analyst Adrian Beaumont agreed, telling PEDESTRIAN.TV that One Nation’s surge was “effectively driven … by dislike for the Budget.”
“They are increasingly seen as the real opposition to Labor, not the Coalition. That’s why I think the Coalition has dropped back as well as Labor,” Beaumont said.
University of Canberra researcher Emily Foley said One Nation had been able to capitalise on economic uncertainties more effectively than the Coalition. Translation: everyone is feeling the pinch, and not many think Labor will do much to help.
“Like many radical right parties, One Nation has capitalised on economic grievances,” Foley wrote for The Conversation. “Economic issues are a key driver in shifting voters from the centre-right towards radical right parties.
Public policy lecturer Josh Sunman agreed that One Nation has tapped into voters’ dissatisfaction with the economy.
“People are feeling insecure with current cost of living pressures including high interest rates, high petrol prices and stagnating wages,” Sunman told PEDESTRIAN.TV.
“Many feel as if the two major parties haven’t been able to get a handle on these issues and address them over the long-term and this is causing them to look to One Nation as something of an ‘outsider’ alternative.”
But Hanson’s popularity doesn’t exist in a vacuum, with some pundits pointing to the influence that overseas far-right populist figures are having here on home soil. US President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni are two such conservative leaders who are dominating the global policy agenda.
Australia getting wind of these figures — who run on hot-button voter concerns like immigration — in recent times is no surprise, with Hanson offering herself as a stand-in for voters dissatisfied with the status quo.
“If a voter believes immigration is to high and needs to be stopped, they are far more likely to vote for One Nation,” Sunman said.
“One Nation has been able to successfully turn its long-term positions on immigration into a sense of authenticity, with Hanson in particular being seen to say what she believes and believe what she says.”
Just yesterday, Hanson pledged to kick out foreign students seeking to extend their visas, claiming international students “abuse the system to access economic benefits… that should be for Australian’s first”, per The Sydney Morning Herald.
It’s a policy totally appropriate for One Nation in that it addresses voters’ economic concerns while providing a simplistic quick-fix and someone to blame.
“One Nation offers a simple diagnosis for economic problems; immigration is to high. This simplifies a lot of complex economic issues down to a single answer of lowering immigration, which seems like a so-called ‘common-sense’ solution to many voters,” Sunman said.
A mix of economic and social factors always come into play in voters’ preferences, and in the case of One Nation, they’re coming against a backdrop of general distrust in the major parties.
One recent poll showed that the majority of voters were dissatisfied with both Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader and Angus Taylor, while another showed that only 32 per cent of Australians trust the government overall.
“Many feel as if the two major parties haven’t been able to get a handle on the issues and address them over the long-term and this is causing them to look to one nation as something of an ‘outsider’ alternative,” Sunman said.
With all that, you’ve got a powder keg of discontent that seemingly only leaves room for one option, with Hanson fitting the bill.
So, what will happen now?
The popularity of One Nation has caught the attention of both the major parties. For his part, Albanese explained the surge as evidence of an outpouring of people who “feel that the system isn’t working for them”.
“If governments don’t respond to that there’ll be a continued rise in populism, be it of the right or the left,” he said.
“It’s something that we are very conscious of and I’m conscious of.”
Meanwhile, Taylor went as far as suggesting the Coalition is open to working with Hanson to oust Labor from power. “We’ll work with others to get rid of this rotten Labor government,” Taylor said, per The Sydney Morning Herald.
We can make all the predictions we like, but Sunman said there’s plenty of time for things to change just as quickly as the surge.
“With an election two years away a lot could change between now and then.”
Lead image: Getty
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