I don’t know who will win the US-Iran war. But if you ask me who’s prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it’s clear US President Donald Trump has the advantage. As much as Tehran says the opposite, the strait is effectively wide open. Crude oil exports from regional US allies via the waterway, plus bypass routes, have risen to about 80% of prewar levels. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its own oil exports plunge to zero.
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A couple of months ago, the surge in oil shipments would have been seen as a major American victory. Yet Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, remains above $100 a barrel. Inside the White House, some must be asking themselves: If this is winning, what would losing look like?
