Memphis Grizzlies forward Ziaire Williams is one of the most fascinating young players in the league.
Williams averaged just 8.1 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game during his rookie campaign. But there are plenty of reasons to believe that this former Stanford standout could drastically improve those numbers in his second professional season.
Last year, Memphis teammates Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both finished in the top 5 for the NBA’s Most Improved Player — with Morant taking home the trophy.
Williams, who is still just 20 years old, is a very interesting candidate to do the same next season. Even though his odds (+20000 per Tipico) equate to a very small implied probability, I like him as a sleeper pick with great value.
Here are the reasons why Williams stands out as a breakout candidate:
1
Usage as the season progressed
Williams had a relatively slow start to his professional career, averaging just 6.8 points in the 33 games he played before February. But with two 20-point outings in February, both career-high marks, he began to earn the trust of his coach.
Back in February, Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins discussed what he saw from Williams (via SLAM):
“His ability to shoot off the bounce is at a really high level—we knew that coming out of college. Getting in there, midrange pull-ups, but then getting to the free throw line, knocking down big free throws on small volume, but those are big shots for him. So he’s expanding his game, not just being a guy who just stands in the corner.”
You can even track the evolution of that expansion in the numbers.
During his rookie campaign, Williams averaged 0.99 dribbles per touch before the All-Star Game and 1.64 dribbles per touch after the game. That means he was allowed 166% as many dribbles during the latter part of the season.
Based on my research, there are 314 players who logged at least 150 minutes both before and after the All-Star break.
Among that group, only one player saw a more significant jump in dribbles per touch pre-All-Star compared to post-All-Star. It was Robert Covington, whose usage changed primarily because he was traded from the Blazers to the Clippers.
Dribbles per touch because this essentially tells us how much a coach trusted a player with the ball in his hands. This change suggests that no one got a bigger role increased as the season progressed than Williams did, and that momentum could carry on into next year as well.
2
Defensive assignments
Even though Williams is 6-foot-9, he spent 61.4 percent of his minutes defending guards on the opposing team during the regular season. That number was even higher (67.3 percent) in the playoffs.
If you look at the players he spent the most time guarding, you’ll see tough matchups like Chris Paul and Donovan Mitchell as well as bigger wings like Jayson Tatum and Brandon Ingram.
Jenkins spoke glowingly about what Williams is able to provide on defense (via Rookie Wire):
“I think recently in starting lineup, he has guarded everyone from Stephen Curry to Luka Doncic, guards, bigger wings. It doesn’t matter. Obviously, as a rookie, he is getting a great education right now on the defensive end. I just love his competitiveness, recovery speed, length and lateral movement.”
The player that Williams spent the most possessions guarding during the postseason, in fact, was actually Curry.
It speaks volumes that an NBA coach was willing to give Williams that crucial defensive assignment that early in his career — especially in the playoffs with the season on the line.
3
Summer League ball-handling
Among players 21 years old or younger, only two players logged more playoff minutes than Williams did: Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Edwards.
Williams, however, was still an active member of the summer league roster for Memphis. That was because the Grizzlies clearly wanted to use the off-season to foster Williams’ ability to play on the ball, and that message was evident in Las Vegas.
David McClure, head coach of the summer league squad for Memphis, spoke about the strategy (via Commercial Appeal):
“We kind of encourage him to make mistakes. He’s not going to learn if he plays safe. We tell him to have fun, enjoy the process. Nothing is going to be perfect. Basketball is an imperfect game.”
During the regular season, when including passes, Williams finished 10.2 percent of his offensive possessions as the ball-handler in pick and roll sets. When he played in NBA 2K23 Summer League, however, that rate jumped to a whopping 46.2 percent.
The increase of 36.0 percentage points (!) was the largest of all of the 45 players who recorded at least 5 possessions as the ball handler in pick and roll sets during the regular season and then also appeared in summer league action.
Last year, the Grizzlies gave Desmond Bane a similar role at summer league before entrusting him with a bigger offensive load once the season began. I’d be surprised if the same thing doesn’t happen with Williams.
