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Fortune
Fortune
Jeff John Roberts

Why Grayscale has a 40% chance of winning its Bitcoin ETF battle with the SEC

(Credit: Fortune)

This one's for all the marbles. Grayscale, the manager of a trust that owns more than 3% of the world's Bitcoin, is going before three judges in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday to argue the Securities and Exchange Commission wrongly denied its application to convert the trust to an ETF.

If the company loses, it will see the price of the trust's shares—which are already trading more than 40% below the price of their underlying Bitcoin—tumble even further, and amount to an existential event for Grayscale and its parent company DCG. But if Grayscale wins, the company and Bitcoin itself will get a major boost, while knocking the SEC's chair, Gary Gensler, on his heels at a time when he is waging a scorched earth battle against crypto.

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