The Bureau of Meteorology released its latest climate driver update on Tuesday, saying the current La Niña has weakened and is “likely near its end”. Most climate models now point to neutral conditions – neither El Niño nor La Niña – through autumn and a trend towards El Niño in early spring.
But it’s too early to say if a return to El Niño is imminent. Nor can we say Australia is about to swing back into drought, as many people fear, after three years of heavy rain associated with consecutive La Niñas.
Putting aside the uncertainties in long-range forecasts of El Niño, there are other factors that will determine whether Australia returns to drought.
