ANALYSIS — Republicans aligned with the party establishment are excited that Texas Sen. John Cornyn has closed the gap with primary challenger Ken Paxton in his high-profile reelection race.
But the four-term incumbent is still extremely vulnerable. The GOP primary, now a three-way race between Cornyn, Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, offers an example of how data can be presented to paint whatever picture you want to see. And using some of the senator’s past and present colleagues as a guide, Cornyn remains in a politically precarious situation.
Earlier this spring, Senate Leadership Fund, the leading Senate GOP outside group, pulled the fire alarm in the race with a survey showing Cornyn trailing Paxton, the state attorney general, by 16 points, 56 percent to 40 percent. It wasn’t a total surprise to people paying attention, but seeing concrete numbers publicly was jarring for many.
