This simply wasn’t the tournament that NBA scouts wanted to see from Alabama freshman Brandon Miller.
With the Crimson Tide eliminated the same night as the Houston Cougars, the Elite Eight will not feature a No. 1 seed for the first time in men’s NCAA tournament history.
But that’s not the only history Miller made during Alabama’s unexpectedly short tournament run. According to CBS Sports, Miller was the only player with at least 40 field-goal attempts “since at least 1960” to ever shoot under 20% in the tournament.
How did that happen to Miller, who was potentially gaining ground on Scoot Henderson as the potential No. 2 overall pick behind Victor Wembanyama in the 2023 NBA Draft?
First, we must address two important storylines surrounding Miller.
Off the court, recent media coverage has largely centered on Miller, who was reportedly on the scene of a fatal shooting in January that killed 23-year-old Jamea Harris. Miller had an armed security guard accompanying him during the tournament because of threats directed at him.
On the court, meanwhile, Miller (groin) was playing through an injury. He was “still not 100 percent” before the game against San Diego State and that showed in his play.
My colleague, Mike Sykes, wrote about the nightmarish nature of Miller’s month. We also wanted to take a deeper dive into the numbers to figure out, from a basketball perspective, what went awry.
MORE: Brandon Miller’s alleged role in horrific shooting leaves us with more questions than answers
Miller was 3-for-19 (15.8 percent) on his 3-pointers, missing each of his attempts off the dribble. His shot chart also indicates that he didn’t connect on a 3-pointer from the top of the key or from either the left or right corners.
He was also 3-for-11 (27.3 percent) from the midrange and 2-for-11 (18.2 percent) at the rim. Maybe due to his injury, he didn’t record a dunk during any of the three games during the tournament and according to Synergy, he was just 2-for-10 (20.0 percent) on layups.
Perhaps most concerning, Miller was highly inefficient on 2-pointers when matched up against a strong opponent. This was an alarming trend for Miller throughout the year.
Brandon Miller ends up shooting 48% (116-240) on 2's this year. But the breakout by competition is stark:
– shot just 38.5% (55-143) on 2's vs top 50 teams
– 63% (61-97) vs all other teams— Draft Dummies (@DraftDummies) March 25, 2023
As we wrote about here, we can look at the shot quality to see what went wrong. Synergy Shot Quality (SSQ) grades each shot based on the type of shot, shot distance, shot angle, play type, shot clock, and other variables.
SSQ is divided into three categories to grade shots: Low (< 20th percentile), Medium (20th-80th percentile), and High (> 80th percentile).
Miller took 10 shots that graded in the lowest group when Alabama was eliminated. He had never previously taken more than 6 and he averaged just 1.8 low-quality shots per game before this performance.
Meanwhile, he took 0 shots that were considered high-quality looks.
Perhaps one reason for this was the clashing of Alabama’s offensive identity with San Diego State’s defensive identity.
Alabama averaged 15.3 seconds per possession on offense, per KenPom, which was the sixth-fastest in the nation and the quickest among all teams that made the NCAA men’s tournament. Especially with Miller on the court, they liked to play fast.
Meanwhile, however, San Diego State’s average defensive possession length (18.5 seconds) was the slowest among teams that made it to the Sweet 16.
The Crimson Tide still played at a high-tempo but San Diego State limited Miller’s chances on the fastbreak and in the open floor. Miller finished 4 offensive possessions in transition and 21 in the half-court. That discrepancy (17 possessions) was one of the largest in Miller’s career and showcased a weakness for the projected top-5 pick.
Miller was one of the most productive transition scorers in the nation. But throughout the tournament, his half-court screen navigation was suspect. He was 0-for-6 with five turnovers as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll and 0-for-5 when using off-ball screens while playing in March Madness.
Overall, based on his shot quality in a set offense during the tournament, Miller was expected to score 0.89 points per shot. But he averaged just 0.37 points per shot in the half-court, per Synergy.
That difference (-0.25) means his overall shot-making in a set offense was the worst overall of the 103 players who finished at least 25 possessions in the half-court during March Madness.
In our latest mock, we projected that Miller would hear his name called as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. ESPN’s latest mock draft also has Miller as the third prospect projected off the board.
NBA prospects are selected based on their full body of work, and a few bad games in the tournament won’t tank his draft stock. He averaged 18.8 points per game as a freshman in the SEC and shot 38.4 percent on 3-pointers.
But scouts will assuredly at least consider how Miller performed during March Madness when they make their final evaluations of him as a future NBA player.
