In a June 15, 2023, Barchart article, Lumber Could Have Found a Bottom—What’s Next? I wrote, “ I expect the decline in inflation and Fed’s pause as constructive events for the new home market. However, as lumber futures roll to the September futures contract, the offseason for building during the winter will be on the horizon. We may have to wait until the end of the year for any sustainable rallies as the wood market shifts its attention to the spring construction season in 2024.”
In mid-June, the nearby September physical lumber futures contract was at the $538.50 per 1,000 board feet level. Since then, lumber prices have made higher lows and higher highs, with the price over $560 on July 19.
