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Politics
Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology

Who will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup? This algorithm uses 10,000 simulations to rank the contenders

Rugby World Cup Rugby World Cup New Zealand RWC All Blacks France South Africa Ireland Pool A

Despite New Zealand’s record loss to South Africa in August, All Blacks fans can take heart from statistical modelling that has them as favourites to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC).

According to Rugby Vision, a well-tested algorithm I developed to predict outcomes for major rugby competitions, New Zealand has a 33.5% chance of winning their fourth RWC title. The next most likely champions are South Africa (26.2%), followed by France (20.6%) and Ireland (11.9%).

Evaluation of the model’s predictions at previous RWCs indicate it is well calibrated. And while the system has some similarities with the official world rugby rankings, it is less sensitive to the outcome of any particular game.

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