Wales coach Wayne Pivac has made it clear that the ultimate goal is winning the Rugby World Cup in France next year. So what exactly needs to happen for that dream to become a reality? Who would Wales have to beat to get to the final in Paris and give themselves a shot at the Webb Ellis trophy? Here’s the road map.
Group stage
To start with, Wales would need to progress from their group. They are in Pool C along with Australia, Fiji and Georgia. That’s a real deja vu scenario as those three were all group opponents in Japan back in 2019.
There will be one new team on board however. That’s because the pool will be completed by the addition of either the USA, Portugal, Hong Kong or Kenya. Those four countries will lock horns in a round robin play-off in Dubai in November, with the final vacant spot at the 2023 Rugby World Cup up for grabs.
In order to progress to the knock-out stage, Wales would have to finish in the top two in the pool. Realistically, that means they could only afford to lose one of their four matches.
They kick off their campaign against the Fijians in Bordeaux on Sunday, September 10 next year, while the potentially pivotal meeting with the Wallabies will take place in Lyon a fortnight later.
Quarter-finals
If Pivac’s team do make it through, they would meet a side from Pool D in the last eight. That section is made up of England, Argentina, Japan, Samoa and tournament debutants Chile. Eddie Jones’ England will be favourites to win the group, although it won’t be plain sailing.
Should Wales top Pool C, they will meet the Pool D runners-up in the quarter-finals. Most people would expect that to be the Pumas or the Japanese. If they finish second, then that sets up the very real possibility of a huge showdown with the old enemy England.
They would play their last eight match at the Stade Velodrome in Marseilles on the weekend of October 14-15.
Semi-finals
Now this is where it starts to get a bit complicated. If Wales were to reach the last four, as they did in Japan in 2019, their opponents would hinge both on their own route and what happens in the other side of the draw. The likelihood is it would be one of reigning champions South Africa, hosts France, New Zealand or Ireland.
Those are the top four sides in the world rankings at the moment. But, due to the tournament format, two of them will miss out on the semi finals. That’s because the seedings were based on how the rankings looked at the start of 2020, a decision influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic. At the time, Wales were reigning Six Nations Grand Slam champions and ranked fourth. It meant they were among the top seeds when the draw was made in December 2020. That, in turn, means they would avoid the current top four until the semi-finals of the World Cup. Those semis will be staged at the Stade de France on October 20 & 21.
The Final
Well, it would be nice wouldn’t it? Should Pivac’s charges make it all the way, then it could be one of half a dozen teams they meet in Paris on the evening of Saturday, October 28, with England and Australia both potentially in the mix along with the current top four in the world - the Irish, Les Bleus, the Springboks and the All Blacks. If Wales were to get this far, it would be their best effort in a World Cup campaign, eclipsing their third-place finish at the inaugural tournament in 1987, along with their two losing semi-finals in 2011 and 2019. And once you are in the final, who knows? So there you have it. As Pivac has always said, “Judge me on the World Cup”.
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