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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Bryony Gooch

How Larijani’s death leaves Iran’s regime facing leadership crisis

The death of Ali Larijani marks the most senior Iranian figure killed by Israel since the assassination of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Iran confirmed the death of its top security chief on Tuesday, despite earlier denying reports that he was dead. A handwritten letter mourning the death of Iranian troops that Tehran claimed was written by Larijani was also released in an apparent attempt to prove he had survived an IDF strike.

A tribute to Larijani was later posted on his X account, reading: “A servant of Allah has joined his Lord as a martyr.”

Israel said it had killed Larijani in overnight strikes which targeted “a hideout apartment” in Tehran. Defence minister Israel Katz also confirmed the death of Basij paramilitary force commander Gholamreza Soleimani in a separate strike.

Larijani, who led Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, had been regarded by experts as among those most likely to step into the power vacuum left by the death of Ali Khamenei.

But despite Khamenei’s son Mojtaba being named supreme leader in his stead, Larijani remained a pivotal figure and was regarded as the country’s de facto leader.

Having held senior positions in the Iranian state for 40 years, experts believe that Larijani could have played a pivotal diplomatic role to help end the war.

“The expectation before his death was that following this war, Larijani might have occupied the leading role in leading negotiations and diplomacy to basically move from the end of the war to the next stage,” Professor Maziyar Ghiabi, Director of the Centre for Persian and Iranian Studies at the University of Exeter, told The Independent.

“This is something that America, the Europeans, the Chinese, and Russia thought was very plausible. This is a person who had the authority and charisma to sell unsatisfactory diplomatic outcomes at home.”

Larijani was among the first officials to call for violence against demonstrators in the uprising in Iran (AP)

In the week before his death, Larijani had posted a thinly veiled threat to Trump after the American leader vowed to rain down “death, fire and fury” on the Islamic Republic.

“The sacrificial nation of Iran doesn’t fear your empty threats,” Larijani wrote in a defiant post on X on 10 March in response.

“Even those bigger than you couldn’t eliminate Iran. Be careful not to get eliminated yourself.”

Despite his fiery rhetoric, Larijani was considered to be a key diplomatic figure with connections across Russia, China and the Gulf after four decades occupying top positions in the IRGC, parliament and Expediency Council.

“He [was] a very strategic politician within the Islamic Republic,” said Professor Ghiabi. “A very intelligent person [with a] degree in philosophy and a published author on philosophical matters.”

Smoke billows after a US-Israeli strike in Tehran during the first week of the conflict (AP)

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the idea that Larijani’s death could lead to a wider power vacuum.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, he said: “I do not know why the Americans and the Israelis still have not understood this point: The Islamic Republic of Iran has a strong political structure with established political, economic, and social institutions.

“We have not had anyone more important than the leader himself, and even the leader was martyred, yet the system continued its work and immediately provided a replacement.”

Professor Ghiabi said out that, during the 12 Day War with Israel last year, the killing of several senior members of Iran’s military and political elite did not provoke a wider crisis for the regime.

“They filled out the post very quickly. We expected the same after the surprise attack by the Americans and the Israelis three weeks ago, and the outcome of that was they got their things together quite quickly.”

Larijani’s funeral in Tehran (Iran state media via Sky News)

He even suggested that Tehran may fill the vacuum left by the former security chief quickly, with speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a decorated military man, and a conservative like Larijani.

“He is less capable, less of an intellectual, and has less of a religious pedigree. He also doesn't come from a religious family like Larijani does, and he doesn't come from a family with deep connections throughout the system, but he's still regarded as someone who could step up.”

But while Iran’s leadership may fill the positions, the assassinations remain a major blow to the regime, according to Professor Ghiabi.

“Each of these assassinations are a blow to the Islamic Republic. It means that the state has been infiltrated at very deep levels and that the military intelligence superiority of the Israelis and Americans is very clear. It means that the fight for survival goes on even more.”

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