Good morning, Peter Vanham here in Geneva, filling in for Alan.
Is anyone still afraid of the pandemic? As the world faces recession fears, bank failures, spiraling inflation, the war in Ukraine, A.I. disruption, and U.S.-China tensions, pandemic concerns may well have fallen out of the top 5 worries of most CEOs.
Not so for Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organization, whom I met in his office in Geneva earlier this week. His top concern, he told me, is that the world may not properly prepare for the next pandemic—and that we haven’t learned from the last.
“If the world does not learn from our past mistakes with COVID, then future generations will question what we did to improve from the pandemic,” he said.
Today, the WHO’s hope is set on a “Pandemic Accord,” which the organization wants to finalize by this time next year. Its “zero draft," distributed earlier this year to the WHO's 194 member states, puts an emphasis on a more equitable distribution of pandemic-related products and “time-bound waivers of intellectual property rights,” a clause that is sure to get the attention of Big Pharma.
Yet Tedros is not as worried about pharma as he is about what he calls “fake news.” “The discourse in many countries, including from leading public figures, is against learning from mistakes,” he said, mentioning Elon Musk, among others, by name. “Musk […] communicated about the WHO taking sovereignty. Other politicians and commentators have done the same. This is just false, and it is dangerous,” he said. (Tedros sparred with Musk on Twitter over the Pandemic Accord in March.)
In other news from Geneva, the World Economic Forum, where I previously worked, launched its latest chief economists outlook this week. Looking in their crystal ball, 45% of those surveyed predicted a global recession in the next 12 months. Another 45% did not expect a recession. Call it a draw, I guess.
Yet the economists did unanimously agree on one thing: 100% said they expected changes in the structure of global supply chains over the next three years. Expected winners will be India (73% expect a positive effect), and Southeast Asia (63%), while the big loser, according the surveyed economists, will be China (72% expect a negative effect).
More news below.
Peter Vanham
peter.vanham@fortune.com
@petervanham
