While Russian troops advance on major cities in Ukraine, causing unspeakable collateral damage, ordinary people in Russia itself are feeling the weight of the most stringent sanctions the West has ever imposed. However, President Vladimir Putin's war effort is not universally supported by the Russian people. RFI met one of them: an exiled Russian national behind the 'True Russia' collective initiative.
A group of Russian exiles is trying to mobilise their compatriots to bring hostilities to an end and help Ukrainian refugees.
One of those exiles is Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist who lives in France. Guriev left Russia in 2013 after he got into trouble with authorities because of a critical assessment of the verdict handed down to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, one of Putin's arch enemies.
Putin saw then billionaire Khodorkovsky, CEO of oil company Yukos, as a threat and had him jailed for nine years.
Guriev, then a likely candidate to become a board member of Russia's largest bank, the Sberbank, was subjected to what he called "alarming" questioning and decided to flee the country.
After working four years as Chief Economist for the London-headquartered European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), between 2015 and 2019, he is now with the Center for Economic Policy Research, which is affiliated to the prestigious Sciences Po university in Paris.
Last Thursday, together with two fellow Russians, writer Boris Akunin and choreographer Mikhael Baryshnikov, Guriev launched the True Russia platform.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine is "a blow to all of us, people who belong to Russian culture and speak Russian," according to the platform's website.
"The very word 'Russian' has become toxic."
With the platform, Guriev hopes to collect money to help alleviate the plight of Ukrainians suffering from Putin's war. RFI's Jan van der Made talked to Guriev.
RFI: What are your objectives in launching True Russia?
Sergei Guriev:
This is not our war. This is Putin's war. And we think about various initiatives where we would try to help Russians to get rid of Putin and where we will try to help Russians to run away from Putin to be settled in new countries. And to help Ukrainians. We started fundraising for Ukrainian refugees, and we are now calling on all Russians to stand up and say, 'this is not my war.'
RFI: How do you actually get through to people in Russia?
Sergei Guriev:
We hope that some people use VPNs and read Western media, follow us on social networks. But it is hard. Some are not yet closed, for instance Telegram channels, YouTube, Instagram. The main problem is not to tell Russians to protest. They are beaten up, detained and sometimes tortured in police departments.
RFI: How does this whole situation affect you as a Russian living abroad?
Sergei Guriev:
I'm not a representative Russian in the sense that I'm reasonably visible and everybody knows I don't like Mr Putin, and that this is mutual. In that sense, I'm not affected by the debate to what extent Russians are responsible for what's happening in Ukraine.
But I feel we do have a responsibility. I think the problem should not be a problem for the Ukrainians. The problem is that we didn't manage to stop Putin within Russia. And for that, I feel my responsibility too. Even though I tried, but apparently I didn't try hard enough.
RFI: Western sanctions result in Russians not being able to use credit cards anymore, MacDonalds and Ikea have pulled out, no more Netflix, fewer foreign brands. How big is the chance this will backfire, given that Putin uses censorship of the free press and has a huge propaganda machine which he can use to blame the West?
Sergei Guriev:
It's a war, and some choices unfortunately involve collateral damage. When we talk collateral damage, there are different ways to define that. One is, if you are in Russia, you cannot watch Netflix.
The other one is you're in Ukraine and your apartment is being bombed. The degree of suffering is not comparable.
For Russians, it could backfire, that is likely in the short run. But in the long run, it will work in the other direction.
Also, it is poorer Russians who will suffer much more because they will not be able to afford basic necessities. But medical companies continue to supply Russia. It's a bit like the ethics of a doctor who treats a patient, even if the patient is a killer.
RFI: Russian billionaires living in the West are also being targeted. But that seems to be handled in a rather indiscriminate way. We have a rule-based society here; if you start a witch-hunt against a certain group, no matter how unsympathetic they are, it sets a precedent which we're not really used to anymore. Wouldn't it be better to investigate these people person by person to check out if they are actually breaking the law?
Sergei Guriev:
I think it's a big issue because the West prevails exactly because it always tries to live according to the values it declares. I think that's a huge difference between the West and Putin. Putin declares one thing and does another thing.
There is, of course, a call for all European banks to look at all the Russians who have more than $100,000 on their accounts. But my understanding is that it goes in the direction of normal compliance checks.
So it's not about indiscriminately closing the accounts. I don't see much Russophobia in this, and the West should take the high ground, and should stick to the rule of law.
RFI: The US, the UK and, to a lesser extend, Europe intend to cut down heavily on Russian oil and gas imports. What effect is that going to have?
Sergei Guriev:
Russia already has disruptions in terms of getting more dollars. So Russia is not in a good situation. If Europe introduces an embargo, then Russia will have to reorientate. And then the next stop is China.
But China not joining the embargo is not a given because if American sanctions are in place, Chinese banks will be scared.
But even if China doesn't join the embargo, it will be very hard (for Russia) to redirect oil exports to China because (most of the) pipelines are going to Europe. The boats are in scarce supply and because of private sector restrictions, it will be very hard to find tankers. So it's not going to be easy.
RFI: How far do you think China will go to support Russia?
Sergei Guriev:
If (Chinese President) Xi Jinping wants to save Russia, he can. He can completely stabilise the Russian economy. And even if the oil will start flowing, he can prepay that and therefore stabilise Russian macro economics.
We don't see that happening. Moreover, we see that some of the biggest Chinese banks actually complied with the American sanctions. We see that China-based multilateral development banks, the new development bank, so-called BRICS Bank and the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank actually stopped operations in Russia.
RFI: Ukraine and Russia are among the world's largest grain exporters. What effect is the war likely to have on grain supply?
Sergei Guriev:
The situation in the grain market will be catastrophic and the most important destination which is going to be hit is north Africa, Egypt in particular.
In 2010, Putin tried to stabilise the situation in domestic grain markets after a series of forest fires, banning exports of Russian grain that resulted in price hikes in countries like Egypt, where protests erupted, and that eventually contributed to the Arab Spring. So this is going to be yet another important dimension of this crisis.
RFI: Critics say that even if Putin wins this war, it may spell the end to his regime. Do you have a plan for a post-Putin era?
Sergei Guriev:
This war was a mistake, a very major miscalculation by Putin and and it has actually shortened the lifetime of his regime for sure. We cannot predict when the regime ends and how it ends and what comes after. It may well be that people who come after Putin are even worse.
But I should say that they probably will not be able to run the country for a long time. And if you want an optimistic scenario: somebody comes after Putin, releases political prisoners, immediately stops the war and organises free elections. In the long run, it is not impossible that Russia will become a normal, European, democratic, peaceful country.
But today we should think about much more urgent issues: stop the war, help Ukrainian refugees, and rebuild Ukraine.
The problem is that we didn't manage to stop Mr Putin within Russia.
Podcast: Sergei Guriev, Center for Economic Policy Research and Putin critic
