A fair read on Dylan Cease’s afternoon in Sunday’s 4-0 loss to the Twins is that he challenged Eduoard Julien with a 95 mph full count fastball with two runners on, and the resulting missile to the left field seats marred an otherwise strong six innings.
That a White Sox lineup resting Luis Robert Jr., Yoán Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t pose a threat might also merit a mention. Or that Statcast showed Cease got squeezed on a full count pitch to Kyle Farmer, which would have keyed a strike ‘em out, throw ‘em out to end the fifth inning before Julien ever dug in.
“It wasn’t my best, but kept us in it,” Cease said, after striking out five and walking three. “It was decent.”
Looking ahead, the only useful way for a 57-93 team to spend its time, a fair read is that glimpses of Cease’s best stuff have been infrequent since his spectacular opening day performance. It’s partially a function of the impeccable durability Cease has had since being called up in 2019, but his 4.85 ERA is the fourth-highest among qualified American League starters, and that 3-2 challenge fastball might have hummed in a tick or two harder this time last season.
“It’s been a weird year for Dylan,” manager Pedro Grifol said about his team innings leader.
Advanced metrics would suggest Cease has pitched more in line with an ERA around 4.00, which reminds that he plays alongside one of the weaker defenses in the sport. There have been incidences of tipping that have made rough days look even worse numerically. But a months-long battle to deal with a tendency to open up early in his delivery highlighted a year where Cease’s mechanics have proven much more difficult to stabilize than his Cy Young runner up campaign in 2022.
He at least seems to be ending the year in a better place.
“There were games early in the season where we got him in a good spot, and the next time he pitched it was just OK,” pitching coach Ethan Katz said last month. “He’d have a really good day, then a bad day. Now it’s a lot more consistent.”
“It’s just going to be getting strong and ready for the next season,” Cease said of his offseason plans. “I feel pretty good where I am mechanically right now. I don’t think I need to tweak too much.
Cease has posted a nearly identically high walk rate this year (10.5 percent) as last season (10.4 percent), and the distinct dip in chases out of the zone he’s seen from opposing hitters would lend credence to inconsistent stuff or command.
While he acknowledged that the offseason will allow for Cease to focus on some existing mechanical issues, Grifol spoke of the 27-year-old’s season in terms of mentality. Both Statcast and Sports Info Solutions show Cease as throwing a lower rate of pitches in the strike zone than any other starting pitcher in the AL this season, and he has essentially danced on the border of being effectively wild his whole career.
Grifol said he’s “gone back and forth” with Katz on this topic.
“His stuff is so good, that at times there’s just too much credit given to the hitter or how hard it is to hit in general,” Grifol said. “You’ve got to remind yourself that this is your ability, this is what I’m going to do and eliminate some of the mechanical stuff that you think you need to correct, and just go out there and compete and attack.”
That’s an unsatisfying answer for an unsatisfying year. Because like a lot of things with the 2023 White Sox, that was already Cease’s goal for following up his breakthrough season. It just didn’t come through.
“Definitely is the only way you’re going to go deep and dominate,” Cease said. “It’s what I try to do. Don’t always do it.”
