Hard to believe, but we are approaching the midway mark on the 2024 season. By this point most teams have a fairly good idea of whether they are headed for the playoff chase or the offseason. The Raiders appear headed for the latter.
When you’re in the position of ‘maybe next year’, the focus tends to shift to the draft. With that in mind, ESPN has put out their early draft projections by using the Football Power Index which simulates the remainder of the season. Those projections have the Raiders picking at sixth overall.
If they were to pick at sixth overall, would that be high enough to get one of the draft’s top quarterbacks? It’s not a deep class, so you’d have to they would need to trade up to get their guy, especially with several other QB needy teams ahead of them like the Panthers, Titans, and Browns.
Here’s the top of that draft projection:
1. New England Patriots (1-6)
Average draft position: 2.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 42.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 89.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.6%
2. Carolina Panthers (1-6)
Average draft position: 3.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 27.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 83.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 97.5%
3. Tennessee Titans (1-5)
Average draft position: 6.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 48.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.5%
4. Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Average draft position: 6.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 47.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.1%
5. Cleveland Browns (1-6)
Average draft position: 7.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 44.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 81.2%
6. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5)
Average draft position: 7.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 43.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 80.7%
7. New York Giants (2-5)
Average draft position: 7.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 39.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 78.7%
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
Average draft position: 8.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 34.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 73.9%
9. New Orleans Saints (2-5)
Average draft position: 10.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 51.1%
10. Los Angeles Rams (2-4)
Average draft position: 12.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 12.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 42.4%
See the rest of the first round here.
