Festive movies and TV shows often show delightful snowfall on Christmas Day — but that’s not rarely the reality in the UK.
Our weather tends to be unpredictable but when snow does arrive, it’s usually early in the new year, especially in recent years.
However, with some surprisingly early snow gracing London on Tuesday - closing roads and schools - hopes for a white Christmas are rising.
So when did this last happen in the UK and London? And what are the chances this year?
Here’s what you need to know.
When was the last official white Christmas in the UK?
The UK Met Office defines a white Christmas as when at least one snowflake is observed at one or more of its 11 reporting stations on Christmas Day.
Traditionally, the organisation used a single location to define a white Christmas: the Met Office building in London.
However, as interest in white Christmases grew, the number of reporting locations expanded to include sites across the UK, such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast’s Aldergrove Airport, Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen, Edinburgh Castle, Manchester’s Coronation Street, and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
The Met Office said that technically, 2023 was the last white Christmas in the UK. It said 11 per cent of stations recorded snow falling, although none reported snow lying on the ground.
Before that, nine per cent of weather stations recorded falling snow in 2022, but none with snow settling.
Both 2021 and 2020 were technically white Christmases, with six per cent of weather stations recording snow falling. However, fewer than one per cent of stations reported snow lying on the ground in 2021 and only four per cent in 2020.
There was no record of snow falling at any station in the UK in 2018 or 2019.
The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. The Met Office said this was extremely unusual because not only was there snow on the ground at 83 per cent of stations (the highest amount ever recorded), but snow or sleet also fell at 19 per cent.
We also had a white Christmas in 2009, when 13 per cent of stations recorded snow or sleet falling, and 57 per cent reported snow lying on the ground.
When did it last snow in London on Christmas Day?
A white Christmas in London, where temperatures are typically higher than in the countryside, is even rarer.
The capital has officially experienced six white Christmases since 1960: 1964, 1968, 1970, 1976, 1996, and 1999.
This means it has been 25 years since London last had a white Christmas.
What are the odds of London having a white Christmas in 2024?
Bookmakers annually compile lists of the places most likely to see a white Christmas.
The Online Betting Guide (OLBG) claims Newcastle and Edinburgh are the most likely places to see snowfall this year — with 36.4 per cent odds.
These are followed by Belfast (22.2 per cent), Dublin (16.7 per cent) and Cardiff (14.3 per cent). London is ninth on this list, with only 10 per cent odds.
You can perhaps take that with a pinch of salt for now, though. As MyLondon reports, the Met Office had said it’s impossible to predict a white Christmas accurately a month before the big day.
“Despite what some headlines suggest, it’s not possible to accurately pick out an exact date for snow to hit the UK weeks in advance, but we do have some long-range outputs that can help us to understand the chances,” Mark Sidaway, deputy chief meteorologist, told the publication.
“Different projections of the future are run multiple times through weather forecasting models. Often these will be quite similar at short ranges, but by the time you get weeks ahead, these can have a significant range of possible weather conditions in the future. It’s our job as meteorologists to look at all these projections and understand what it’s telling us about the likelihood of conditions.”
He added: “Certainty will tend to increase as we get closer to the time, and the best indication of impactful snow in the forecast would be when a Met Office national severe weather warning is issued.”
