You wouldn't know it listening to Eddie Howe... but Newcastle United are on the cusp of qualifying for the Champions League after another fine Premier League win in midweek. Thursday's 4-1 victory over Everton at Goodison Park means the Magpies boast an eight-point lead over fifth and sixth-placed Tottenham and Aston Villa heading into the business end of the campaign.
Downplaying the distance between Newcastle and Champions League certainty after the Everton win, Howe told reporters: "We know nothing is taken for granted from our perspective. It puts us in a lot stronger position. To get six points from Tottenham and Everton is a great return."
Howe quipped he wouldn't be getting the calculator out but Chronicle Live has done just that, taking a look at just how close Newcastle are to securing a place in Europe's premier competition.
The competitors
Tottenham fixtures (54 points, 5th) - Liverpool (A), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H), Leeds (A)
Spurs are a club in chaos but still hold fifth-place at present. Ryan Mason's first game as interim manager saw the north London side fight back from a two-goal deficit to draw with Manchester United.
Newcastle spanked Tottenham on Sunday to open up a nice gap over the crisis-stricken outfit. They still have to face Liverpool and Aston Villa between now and the end of the campaign. They currently trail the Magpies by eight points.
Aston Villa fixtures (54 points, 6th) - Manchester United (A), Wolves (A), Spurs (H), Liverpool (A), Brighton (H)
Unai Emery's side have defied the odds to place themselves firmly in the picture for a European push. The Villans demolished Newcastle at Villa Park earlier this month but also trail the Magpies by eight points.
VIlla have also played the same amount of games as Spurs but one more than Newcastle. The highest points total they could finish with is 69 - seven more than Newcastle's current total.
Liverpool fixtures (53 points, 7th) - Tottenham (h), Fulham (h), Brentford (h), Leicester (a), Aston Villa (h), Southampton (a)
Liverpool can still achieve a total of 71 points following their 2-1 win at West Ham on Wednesday, but that would require the Anfield outfit to win all their remaining six games. Three more wins for Newcastle, currently on 62 points, would match that total, with the Magpies having a superior goal difference.
Brighton fixtures (49 points, 8th) - Wolves (H), Manchester United (H), Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle (A), Southampton (H), Manchester City (H), Aston Villa (A)
Brighton have some catching up to do but have games in hand over each of their rivals. The Seagulls have played three fewer than Villa and Tottenham, two fewer than Newcastle and Manchester United, and one game less than Manchester United.
Brighton still have eight games to play, but following their 3-1 defeat to stugglers Nottingham Forest, look like they have their work cut out to mount a challenge. They still can get 73 points with eight wins - but with Manchester United, Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester City still to face, that would be a truly remarkable feat.
The simple facts
Newcastle have six games remaining and the potential to pick up 80 points should they win each of them. Howe's side will play four of their final fixtures at home against Southampton, Arsenal, Leicester and Brighton. They will also travel to Leeds and Chelsea before the end of the campaign.
74 points will be enough to mathematically guarantee Newcastle a place in the Champions League next season, meaning they only need to pick up 12 points from a possible 18 to definitively cross the finish line.
In the unlikeliest of scenarios that every single result goes in Newcastle's favour this weekend and next, Howe's men could find themselves 13 points clear of Tottenham and Aston Villa by May 7th - with both chasing teams being unable to overturn the deficit.
Should Liverpool lose two at Anfield within the space of a week, they would find themselves 12 points adrift of the Geordies if they beat Southampton. They would then have to win each of their remaining games and somehow overturn a huge goal difference deficit to Newcastle.
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