Succeeding in fantasy football is all about stats, trends and knowing how to analyze that information and using it to your advantage. While the NFL is a week-to-week league, which makes it difficult to predict anything with certainty (hello, Zach Wilson’s big stat line against the Texans), here’s five things I learned from Week 14 that I’ll definitely be using when I set my playoff lineups for Week 15.
The No. 1 fantasy pick remains “cursed”
Justin Jefferson returned to action this week after a seven-game absence, but he suffered an injured chest in the first half and left after just two catches. Who knows how much more time he will miss (if any), but Jefferson has joined a troubling trend. In the last four years, the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick has missed a portion of the season due to some sort of ailment. That includes Christian McCaffrey in 2020 and ’21, Jonathan Taylor in 2022 and now Jefferson this season. His missed time and early exit today has likely cost a lot of fantasy managers a chance at the playoffs.
You know nothing (in fantasy), Jon Snow
This week’s slate started with what was considered a real stinker in Pittsburgh with Bailey Zappe and Mitchell Trubisky under center. They both scored over 20 fantasy points! If that wasn’t enough to make you nuts, Desmond Ridder, Jake Browning, Joe Flacco, Baker Mayfield and Zach Wilson joined Zappe and Trubisky as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks heading into the Monday doubleheader. Like I always say, the only thing predictable about the NFL and fantasy football is it’s unpredictability.
Patrick Mahomes is officially a fantasy bust
How dare I speak of such things! Mahomes is a fantasy god! Well, he was. But not this season. Mahomes was held to 13.6 points in a loss to the Bills, which was fewer points than Ridder, Browning, Zappe, Trubisky, Flacco, Mayfield, Wilson, Drew Lock and Gardner Minshew. That’s insane. Mahomes has also scored 16.9 or fewer points in all but one of his last six games, during which time he’s averaged a gross 14.3 points. Much of this isn’t Mahomes’ fault, but he’s killed fantasy managers and their chances to make the postseason regardless. He’s no longer a must start.
I’ll never doubt Matthew Stafford again!
(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
When I’m wrong, I say I’m wrong. And damn it, have I been wrong about Stafford. Heading into Week 12, he had failed to score more than 16.9 points in a single game. Then he put up four touchdowns and 23.4 points against the Cardinals. He then scored 23.4 points against a tough Browns defense, but I wasn’t buying into him against the Ravens … in Baltimore. After all, no quarterback had scored more than 16.2 points against them at home. So, what does Stafford do? He threw for three more touchdowns and scored 23.7 points. With a plus matchup against Washington next on the schedule, Stafford is going to be a viable fantasy starter.
Rachaad White is now an elite fantasy back
Call me crazy, but we have to give White the respect he deserves. After a slow start to the season, he has scored at least 15.9 points in all but one game since Week 7. In that time, White has averaged an impressive 19 points. That’s right up there with the likes of Alvin Kamara, and it’s more than Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and many other “elite” backs. For the season, only McCaffrey, Travis Etienne and Raheem Mostert have more points than White among running backs.
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