Plaid Cymru has just held its autumn party conference in Llandudno. The chaos in Westminster, and the topic of independence, dominated the conversations among delegates .
With all the uncertainty there are huge threats but potentially large opportunities for opposition parties. But what did we actually learn about the state of Plaid at the moment?
Ambitions diminish – don’t expect many gains in the next election
You usually have to read between the lines to work out if a political party isn’t expecting to make major gains at the next election. This was not necessary with Plaid.
In an interview with WalesOnline leader Adam Price said that the mark of success at the next election was “growth”. But when pressed he was quick to clarify that an increase in vote share (with no more seats gained) would also constitute “success” in his view.
For time immemorial one of the key aims of Plaid has been to try and secure inroads into Labour heartlands in the Valleys. It was one of the great successes of Leanne Wood (who was one of the few to not get a mention in the leader’s speech) to win the Rhondda seat from Labour. This approach now seems to be taking a backseat. In his speech Mr Price told Labour that if they are “genuine” about making Wales a “Tory free-zone” then “you rebuild your broken red wall” but that “from Llandudno to Llansteffan, from Aberffraw to Aberaeron, we’ll paint our coastline green”.
What does this mean? Basically Plaid under Mr Price are content simply to consolidate in their heartlands. That's quite a climbdown from a man who in the autumn of 2020 told WalesOnline that “anything less than being First Minister" in the following year's Senedd election would be “failure”.
The shift in mentality runs still deeper. Instead of aspiring to lead Wales it seems Plaid instead wants to indirectly guide Welsh Labour. “We change the future and they change their minds,” he said, adding: “And, of course, they claim the credit."
Clearly Mr Price doesn’t see, or even really aspire to, an end of Welsh Labour’s hegemony in Cymru. “If moving Wales forward means we have to drag Labour behind us then so be it,” he said. “If writing the next chapter in our history means filling in the blanks in someone else’s thinking then that is what we will do.”
Critics might ask: 'Why?' What is Adam Price waiting for? When will be circumstances be more favourable to make inroads? In Westminster there is chaos. In Wales the Welsh NHS is on its knees and Mark Drakeford, the only Labour MS with major cut-through in the wider public, will be stepping down. If not now then when?
Independence is everything
It is abundantly clear that the overwhelming aim of Plaid Cymru under Adam Price is not power – it is independence. Mentioned more than 30 times in his speech, there was clearly an attempt to move the debate around independence along. Whereas before the 2021 election the party was trying to ride the wave of momentum from the growth of YesCymru there is clearly a drive within the leadership to start tackling the harder-to-reach fruit. Part of this involves partnering with the Greens (who are also pro-independence) to create the Future Cymru Forum which they claim will consult, research, and develop a “groundbreaking body of work” to answer the questions posed by independence.
In many ways this is admirable. One of the key criticisms of Plaid in recent years (excluding internal party politics) has been that despite running for election with independence front and centre of their manifesto many of the big questions around independence remain not just unanswered but not even broached. This shift to looking at the practicalities reflects a maturing of the debate in Wales.
However actions speak louder than words. While it is all very well to research more into the realities of independence being responsible with how you present this information is just as important. In his speech Mr Price referenced research from Professor John Doyle which he claims “debunks the argument” that Wales is too small and too poor to thrive as an independent nation.
He said that this research suggested that rather than the “ONS-derived £13.5bn deficit” an independent Wales would “represent a deficit of approximately £2.6bn equal to just over 3% of our GDP”. The issue here is the research relies on several things to happen in the post-independence referendum negotiation including the remaining UK taking on the liability for Welsh pensions. This is a monstrous “if”. This research “debunks” nothing – it merely adds to the pool of knowledge needed for an informed debate.
Clearly Mr Price’s long-term strategy is to get Labour on board with independence. He repeatedly mentioned polls that suggest 40% of Labour voters in Wales support independence. That “drag Labour behind us” line reflects this.
“Creating an independent Wales was not the role of just one party but the work of an entire nation, all of its people, and all of its perspectives,” he told conference. “That was part of the impulse in creating a cooperation agreement with the Labour Party. It will give us a Senedd that looks like the parliament of a soon-to-be-independent nation.”
Contrast this with the SNP where Nicola Sturgeon and leaders before her have been single-minded in their drive to wipe out Scottish Labour and take an iron grip on the reigns of power. But Scotland is not Wales. Mr Price does not face a weak Scottish Labour which was torn apart by being partially unable to embrace its Scottishness. He faces Welsh Labour who, through their calls for home rule, have left Plaid with nowhere else to go other than all in on independence.
Drifting
It was a strange atmosphere at Plaid’s conference. Neither downbeat or excited. It neither thrummed with energy or felt flat. It just was.
Given the events in Westminster it is easy to see Plaid at present as a party where events are happening to them. There is no escaping the fact that this was the conference Labour would have wanted Plaid to have.
Mr Price can be a very effective communicator – particularly when he is speaking to people inclined to agree with him. His speech ticked all the right boxes. There was no sense of widespread discontent among delegates at the party's direction. But it is hard not see that at next year's conference they will be having the same conversation, clapping the same sentiment, and with no more than one more MP.
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