- Much of what USDA will release at the end of March in its Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports has already been shown to us by the markets.
- Regarding plantings, the Nov24 soybean/Dec24 corn futures spread favored more soybeans acres from last September through this past February, the key 6-month pricing period.
- As for quarterly stocks, national cash indexes (national average cash prices) showed increases across the board from a year ago.
For whatever reason, most folks in the ag industry can’t get enough when it comes to “guidance” from USDA. They wait impatiently every week, month, quarter, and so on for the latest handout of manna from their beloved government agency, paying no mind to the reality these numbers are imaginary. I’ve said this for years, for decades, yet nothing has changed. Like turkeys drowning from looking up at the sky during a rainstorm, I can’t stop people from treating these reports as if they are important. Ag media tells them it matters. The majority of talking heads in the industry (amazingly enough, most of them tied to a brokerage outfit), tell people to trade and/or make marketing plans around report days. And so it goes. Before we get into the discussion, let me ask you this: If you were running an investment fund in grains, would you rely on imaginary numbers that are at least a month old upon release? None of the investment companies I visit with do, so there’s that. Lastly, this is not my thoughts on what USDA will say when it releases its guesses. I don't play that silly game. This is analysis of what the markets were showing us at the time.
