Wales' hopes of reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup were dealt a huge blow after a heartbreaking loss to Iran but have been bolstered after England failing to beat the United States.
Rob Page's side were poor against Iran on Friday morning, with Rouzbeh Cheshmi and Ramin Rezaeian securing a 2-0 win for Carlos Queiroz's side in second-half injury-time after goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey was sent off.
But Wales' almighty task of making it out of the group has been made slightly less difficult after Gareth Southgate's side stumbled to a 0-0 draw against the USA on Friday evening, missing a huge opportunity to book their place in round of 16.
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Wales quite simply need a win against England on Tuesday, November 29, to stand a chance of reaching the last-16. At the end of Friday, they were bottom of the group with just one point to their name, while the USA sit in third place with two points.
While they absolutely need to secure a famous victory over England, one of the tournament favourites, in order to survive, Wales will also have to be reliant on the result of the other game, USA v Iran, going their way, as well as goal difference.
But what will have to happen for Wales to sneak through? Here's what they need to happen on Tuesday, November 29, to stand a chance of making the knockouts:
Scenario 1: Wales beat England, USA and Iran draw
If Wales defy the odds and beat Gareth Southgate's side, they will be up to four points, tied with England. Iran will also be on four points if they can grab a draw against the United States, with the latter finishing bottom of the group on three points.
This is where goal difference comes into play. Both Iran and Wales go into Tuesday level on goal difference (-2), but a Wales win will mean this decreases by at least one, while a draw for Iran will mean their goal difference won't change, meaning that Wales will finish in at least the top two in the group and progress to the next round.
They could even top the group, but would need to beat England by at least four goals to do so, in order to beat them on goal difference.
Scenario 2: Wales beat England by 4+ goals, USA beat Iran
Sticking with the prospect of Wales beating England, Rob Page's side could also sneak through to the round of 16 if the United States beat Iran. This could well happen, with the USA four places ahead of their opponents in the world rankings, but with just two points to their name so far this World Cup they will also be looking for their first win of the tournament on Tuesday.
If the USA do beat Iran, it will bring them up to five points, meaning they would top the group if Wales win against England. It would then be between Wales and England for second place, but again Rob Page’s side need to win by at least four goals in order to put them through.
Scenario 3: Wales beat England by 4+ goals, Iran beat USA
If Iran follow up their win over Wales with another over the USA, there is still a chance that they can qualify for the next round. If Wales also beat England, then Iran would top the group on six points, while Wales would be level on points with England, both sharing four points.
Yet again, this would come down to goal difference, with Wales needing to win by four goals to knock England out and progress to the round of 16.
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