The second legs of Champions League matchups are often where the magic happens and where the drama manifests. The opening 90 minutes set the table for what's to come, and that means either the desperation of a comeback attempt or the intensity and tension of a potential upset.
This season's round of 16 is no different, and with the removal of the away goals rule making things more mathematically straightforward and a number of ties still hanging in the balance, the next couple of weeks should feature some memorable moments.
Half of the eight series are level after the first leg, with another currently a one-goal margin. Only one club, Man City, can truly approach the second leg with a level of utmost comfort. That leaves plenty of room for more magic and drama to transpire across Europe both this week and next. Here's how we see the second-leg matches unfolding and the quarterfinal field shaping up:
Bayern Munich vs. RB Salzburg (1–1 aggregate)
Bayern came extremely close to heading into the second leg down a goal, but Kingsley Coman came to the rescue for Bayern once again with a 90th-minute equalizer. The 1–1 draw reflects Bayern's form of late, as the 2020 Champions League winner has dropped points in three of its last five matches in all competitions.
Salzburg is looking to become the first Austrian club in 40 years to make the European Cup/Champions League quarterfinals. To accomplish that, it will have to defeat a Bayern side that has advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals in eight of the last nine seasons. Keep an eye out for U.S. men’s national team midfielder Brenden Aaronson, but it would take quite the performance to see Salzburg past Bayern in an elimination game.
Prediction: Bayern advances, but it'll be closer than you think.
Liverpool vs. Inter Milan (2–0 agg.)
After a scoreless first half, Liverpool outlasted its Italian hosts thanks to strikes from Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah within eight minutes of each other. Inter couldn't even manage a shot on target at home against the 2018–19 Champions League winners.
The Reds, who are undefeated in Champions League this season, find themselves in great form of late with 12 straight wins in all competitions, including an epic penalty-shootout win over Chelsea in the League Cup final. Only one team in Champions League history has ever advanced in the knockout stage after losing the first leg at home by two or more goals—Manchester United vs. PSG in 2019—and, at Anfield, it would be difficult to see Inter become the second.
Prediction: Liverpool advances comfortably.
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Manchester City vs. Sporting Lisbon (5–0 agg.)
With a 4–0 lead by the time the halftime whistle blew, Man City never gave Sporting much of a chance in the first leg. Against his one-time rival, former Benfica star Bernardo Silva led the way with two first-half goals as City paraded its efficiency (five goals on only six shots on target).
The lopsided win, which equaled the biggest margin of victory away from home in Champions League knockout history, capped an eventful 10 days for the Premier League champions, who outscored their opponents 15–1 across four games. At home with such an advantage, City may even use this game to rest some starters and give its second team a chance in the knockout stage—although even its second team could compete for any league title across Europe.
Prediction: Man City advances easily.
Real Madrid vs. PSG (0–1 agg.)
After an entertaining first leg that somehow managed only one late goal, Real-PSG is still the biggest round-of-16 game on everyone's calendar. Against his longtime suitors, Kylian Mbappé proved to be the deciding factor in the clash at the Parc des Princes with his 94th-minute winner; but now PSG must head into the Bernabéu. And it may have to do so without Mbappé, whose status is unclear after he reportedly picked up a foot knock in training on Monday.
Real keeper Thibaut Courtois was immense in the first leg with eight saves, which included a massive stop on a Lionel Messi penalty. Unfortunately, it still doesn't erase the fact that the PSG defense had every answer for Real's attack as the Spanish giants couldn't even manage a shot on target. You never know at the Bernabéu, but this year is Champions League title or bust for PSG.
Prediction: PSG advances in a close game.
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Manchester United vs. Atlético Madrid (1–1 agg.)
PSG-Real Madrid may be the marquee event of the round of 16, but Atlético's trip to Old Trafford should have plenty of action. The Spanish champions dominated the first half in Madrid, behind João Félix's seventh-minute opener, but the Red Devils pulled one back in the 80th from the unlikeliest of sources: 19-year-old Swedish U-21 forward Anthony Elanga.
Manchester United will hope to rely upon the heroics of Ronaldo against Atlético if he is passed fit after missing the Manchester derby. Atlético has now faced an English side in its last three round-of-16 appearances (in 2020 it defeated defending champion Liverpool before losing last year to the eventual champion, Chelsea). In such tight circumstances, Diego Simeone's experience may be the deciding factor.
Prediction: Atlético advances in a close one.
Ajax vs. Benfica (2–2 agg.)
While it may not be one of the more talked-about matchups, we can only hope the second leg between Benfica and Ajax is as good as the first was. The Portuguese hosts twice overcame one-goal deficits to earn a draw thanks to Ukraine international Roman Yaremchuk's 72nd-minute equalizer, where he revealed the Ukrainian coat of arms under his jersey.
Sébastien Haller continues to lead the Champions League in goals and find the back of the net, although he did score an own-goal in the first leg before following up three minutes later with a goal that landed in the opponent's net. It would be silly to try to accurately predict anything other than more fireworks, but one has to trust the home side (even without the away goals rule that would have benefitted Ajax).
Prediction: Ajax advances in an exciting contest.
Juventus vs. Villarreal (1–1 agg.)
Juventus star Dušan Vlahović scored just 32 seconds into his Champions League debut, but that was all Juventus could muster in the first leg. However, the Bianconeri will host Villarreal at home as they look to avoid dropping out of the round of 16 for the third straight season.
Villarreal showed fight to overcome the early deficit in the first leg and looked inspired in its first knockout appearance since 2009. Juventus, which sits in fourth place in Serie A eight points off the top, may have other things to worry about, whereas the Yellow Submarine is playing with house money after winning last year's Europa League.
Prediction: Villarreal advances in a shocker.
Lille vs. Chelsea (0–2 agg.)
The Champions League title holders got off to a good start in their first knockout stage game thanks to goals on either side of halftime from Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic. With clean sheets in four of its last five games since returning from its Club World Cup victory, Chelsea is using the same formula as its title-winning run from last season.
Lille can hold onto the hope that it will host the Blues, although the French champions have won only five of their last 10 home games. Still, even at home, overcoming a two-goal deficit against the European champions would be quite the ask.
Prediction: Chelsea advances without trouble.
