Happy New Year! Welcome to Xbox in 2024. 🕺🏻🎇
It's a new dawn for Microsoft Gaming. We're now over a full decade removed from the dark days of the Xbox One launch, and we've now moved beyond simply turning a page on the Xbox of yore. We now have a whole new book to write, and 2024 is arguably its first chapter.
In October 2023, Microsoft completed its acquisition of Activision-Blizzard for a cool $70 billion. This completes a truly gargantuan few years of investment in gaming from Microsoft, which includes studios like Undead Labs, Compulsion Games, and InXile, but also ZeniMax and Bethesda. The vastness of the legacy now within Microsoft's umbrella is hard to visualize, but we're talking franchises spanning decades here — Nintendo-like nostalgia that has, up until now, largely eluded the Xbox brand. Microsoft has also expanded its hardware footprint, investing massively in cloud gaming servers powering experiences you can enjoy right from your television, no console required. Microsoft is also making bets on the future for gaming, including AI for dev tooling, graphics, and potentially even gameplay.
So, with all that in mind, what can you expect to see from Microsoft Gaming and Xbox in 2024? Let's brainstorm, friends.
Perpetual forward motion
At least from a revenue perspective, Xbox is expected to have a huge leap in growth this quarter, as money from Call of Duty, Candy Crush, and World of Warcraft starts pouring in. The jump could put Microsoft ahead of long time competitors like PlayStation in the global games rankings. And with Tencent's outlook battered by China's aggressive (and evolving) regulatory stance towards home-grown gaming companies, Microsoft potentially has an opportunity to leapfrog them too.
What does that mean for gamers, though? Well, cash flow from games like Call of Duty will help subsidize Microsoft's gaming operations in general, helping to offset risk as more traditional single-player experiences get ever increasingly expensive to produce. Xbox CEO Phil Spencer also previously hinted that Activision-Blizzard titles will start hitting Xbox Game Pass in 2024 as well, although it might take a little while for some of the more heavy hitters like Diablo 4 and Call of Duty itself to join the service. Initially, I would expect to see games from Activision's back catalog hit the service first. Perhaps we'll get classic Call of Duty games in there initially, alongside games like Crash Bandicoot, Spyro, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater, and maybe Diablo 3. For more recent titles like Diablo 4 and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3, Microsoft will likely want to assess how an Xbox Game Pass inclusion may disrupt the cash flow of those titles, and impact the teams working on said games, before jumping in head-first.
Indeed, Microsoft has probably already done some preliminary assessments on these kinds of things, but it was only legally able to begin collaborating with Activision-Blizzard as of October 2023 when the deal closed. Microsoft and Activision-Blizzard will probably spend years fully integrating, and there are a lot of implications for what that may look like.
Beyond the back catalog and Xbox Game Pass, fans will want to know about some of the minutiae. What will Microsoft do with Battle.net? Blizzard's game launcher and social network has been present for decades, and has served as the fabric for communications between games like World of Warcraft, Diablo 4, and even mobile titles like Hearthstone and Warcraft Rumble. I suspect Microsoft will leave it as is for now, but it's hard to say what might happen in the future. What about events like Blizzcon, which are notoriously expensive and don't break even financially? What about Call of Duty and Overwatch esports? What about the Blizzard perks on Twitch Prime? And so on. There are a lot of moving parts here, which will probably end up aligning with Microsoft's broader strategy in the coming months and years ahead.
Something more definitive we can elude to is: Microsoft will want to do is mark the fact Activision-Blizzard is now part of team Xbox, and they'll probably want to mark it soon. I suspect we'll get that big back catalog drop into Xbox Game Pass sooner, rather than later, perhaps even as part of an event and showcase to help set the tone for the coming year.
Let's face it, Microsoft has a true mountain of content to showcase in the near and long term.
A swell of fresh first-party content, and events to showcase them
Indeed, this time last year, Microsoft did an Xbox Developer_Direct event which gave us Hi-Fi Rush as its headline act. I would bet money that you can expect something similar in the near term too. I know from my conversations with Microsoft figures at in-person events last year that they are on board with a more regular cadence of information sharing, through events like its Xbox Developer Direct and the E3 Xbox Showcase events in June. So, let's assume that we are getting a new Xbox Developer Direct in the next few weeks, what can we realistically expect to be there?
We already know from previous events that Avowed is slated for 2024. Avowed is the first major game from Obsidian, known for titles like Fallout: New Vegas and The Outer Worlds in quite some time. Obsidian has launched smaller projects including Pentiment and Grounded, but Avowed looks set to be something more grand, set in the famed Pillars of Eternity universe. It might be fair to think of Avowed in the following terms: if The Outer Worlds was Obsidian's take on Fallout, Avowed would be Obsidian's take on The Elder Scrolls, albeit with various twists, and Obsidian's industry-leading writing.
We also have Towerborne, which I was lucky enough to play at Gamescom last year. Towerborne could become something of a sleeper hit. If Diablo, with its loot and progression systems, had a baby with Castle Crashers' tight side-scrolling combat, it might look something like Towerborne. With combat designers from Killer Instinct and the team behind The Banner Saga, Towerborne could also be something really special.
The headline act for 2024 is undoubtedly Hellblade 2. Long in gestation at Ninja Theory, Hellblade 2's visual quality already speaks for itself. Right now, we have no idea how it actually plays, however. The previous game was something of a cinematic experience with very little combat, but Hellblade 2 has every opportunity to be a little more interactive. Set in bronze age Iceland, Senua will battle myth and legend, and her own demons, on a long journey to Hekla — otherwise known as the gateway to hell.
There are other games likely ready to showcase in greater detail at any potential Xbox Developer_Direct, including the 4X strategy title ARA: History Untold, and the new Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024. Last year, though, we had a shadow drop in the form of Hi-Fi Rush. Perhaps Microsoft has some similar surprises up their sleeve this year as well.
Microsoft has noted its long-standing ambition to get one major game launch in per quarter for Xbox Game Pass moving forward. We know ARA: History Untold, Towerborne, Hellblade 2, and Avowed are slated for 2024, but what else could fit the bill? I would also say it's fair to expect some major surprises at upcoming events, as Microsoft's investments begin to hit their stride in the post-pandemic era.
Microsoft has a mountain of studios these days, across ZeniMax, its internal teams, and Activision. And while it might be too early to see any exclusive titles emerge from Activision in the near term, plenty of other studios have been quiet for quite some time. We've not heard what id Software is working on, we don't know what The Coalition's next game looks like. We've not heard anything of Avalanche's Contraband project, nor do we know what the status of Perfect Dark is. There's also State of Decay 3 to consider, as well as the big Fable reboot. While it's unlikely any of these could drop in 2024, it stands to reason that we will most likely see them showcased between now and the end of the year.
New platform features, new hardware innovations
A major leak last summer detailed Microsoft's Xbox hardware thought processes from back in 2021. While some of the information is outdated, and I have it on good authority some of (and maybe all of) the plans have changed, it does serve us to take a look back and remind ourselves what Microsoft has been considering in recent years.
The rise of PC gaming handhelds like the Steam Deck and ASUS ROG Ally has undoubtedly captured Microsoft's imagination. It was an intense topic of discussion at every opportunity and every event I went to in the past year, chiefly among those how Windows 11 is barely fit for purpose on a 7 to 8-inch gaming tablet, with interface issues that aren't functional on touch. It's a testament to Windows' adaptability that a device like that is even possible, but it's also undeniable how much more user-friendly the Steam Deck or Nintendo Switch are, with custom-made interfaces more befitting of their hardware paradigms.
In those previous leaks, Microsoft said building its own handheld gaming device was "out of scope for first party," indicating that Microsoft may want to lean further on Lenovo, ASUS, and other OEMs supporting the PC gaming handheld effort instead. To that end, Windows 11 (or even Windows 12) itself would need to be heavily adapted and customized, and Microsoft has positioned teams to support that effort. But what about on the console side?
In the leaks last year, it was revealed that Microsoft has geared up minor mid-gen refreshes for the Xbox Series X and S, codenamed Brooklin and Ellewood. These consoles would both become all digital, ditching disc drives entirely, while incorporating Bluetooth 5.2 for the first time for better accessory compatibility, as well as Wi-Fi 6E for improved streaming and internet consistency. Neither of these consoles come with any hardware upgrades, however, and would most likely be heavily overshadowed by the PlayStation 5 Pro, which Sony will most likely be looking to position as the "best place" to play the console-exclusive Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2025, no doubt. GTA6 will be a huge event for console gaming, shifting people from PS4 and Xbox One consoles in a way no other game has achieved previously. Microsoft may want to ensure it has at least something fresh to capitalize on that wave, although perhaps they have other plans in mind.
There have been some suggestions that Microsoft may end up skipping over mid-gen refreshes entirely and just gun for an entirely new gen in 2026 or 2027. Perhaps they could step away from directly competing with PlayStation and instead just building new hardware as and when it sees fit, much like Nintendo does. Microsoft's timeline lists FY25 Q1 for launching the mid-gen consoles, which for Microsoft, starts in July 2024. Microsoft also aims to launch a new controller this summer, codenamed Sebile, which will incorporate superior platform switching features and better Bluetooth for multi-modal gaming. If things are all still going to plan, we'd also see Brooklin (X) and Ellewood (S) debut during that time too, with a September and October launch respectively, at $599 and $299 price points. I can't help but wonder if Microsoft might not just pivot towards focusing on next-gen at this point, though.
The documents describe how Microsoft begun prototyping and researching what an Xbox with onboard AI processing might look like. Some of the ideas include improved AI NPCs in games, for example, but also things like improving cloud latency, generating frames, and improving graphics. In that timeline, Microsoft's "Gen 10" consoles would launch in 2028, and may even be based on ARM64 architecture instead of the AMD architecture we know today. The same documents describe how developing a "Thin OS" for $99 dollar handheld devices could also be on the cards.
We'll find out for certain if some of, or all of these plans have remained in place this summer at Microsoft's Xbox Showcase 2024. If Ellewood and Brooklin do end up launching regardless, it stands to reason that the rest of the plans will remain in place, which would give us four more years of the current hardware cycle before Microsoft's big AI co-processing Xbox push in 2028.
What do you want to see from Xbox in 2024?
There are other things likely on the horizon for 2024 as well. Microsoft has teased new Xbox achievements in an exclusive interview with us, as well as projects for franchises like Banjo Kazooie and StarCraft. Microsoft is also working on new Xbox accessories, including wireless headphones and new features for the Xbox Design Lab.
Personally, I do want to see Microsoft create its own Xbox handheld, preferably natively. I think the Nintendo Switch 2 could become a huge threat when it drops in the near future, grabbing that portable factor enjoyed by the Steam Deck while also grabbing the power necessary to provide AAA games that have eluded the first Nintendo Switch. I think cloud will have a role to play, but cloud is incredibly expensive and energy intensive, when you could just provide local hardware and make use of those thousands of digital titles people have purchased instead. The fact I can't take my Xbox games to other platforms in the same way I can with Steam games is a real downer on the Xbox ecosystem, particularly when cross platform scalability was supposed to be Microsoft's wheelhouse. Right now, Steam is the only platform that gives me gaming on cloud, high-end local hardware, and mid-range local handheld hardware — I imagine this is exactly where Microsoft dreams it could be. And this is absolutely where Microsoft should aim to be, in my view.
I'm not worried about content, though. Xbox Game Pass is absolutely the best deal in gaming, and will remain so in 2024. Microsoft's first party teams will absolutely hit their stride in 2024 and beyond, and the release cadence should pick up heavily in the coming years. The blips of yesteryear should become rarer, and the platform innovations and investments should ramp up, as subsidization from Activision's huge mobile arm picks up pace.
2024 should be a great year for Xbox and its customers, and I'm here for it. But what do you want to see? Drop in the comments, let us know.
