The paddock was greeted by warm, sunny weather on Tuesday ahead of the start of track action for SUPER GT’s traditional midweek fixture on Wednesday, and forecasts indicate that both days of running will be completely dry - which would be a welcome change after two days of tempestuous weather at Okayama.
It was also a big change from the official test at Fuji in March, which was likewise marked by heavy rain on both days that served to cloud the competitive order.
That means many teams are heading into this week’s 100-lap race with very little data to go on. While several Honda and Nissan squads were present for a two-day test in February, when temperatures were much lower than they will be this week, others - including all the Toyota teams - are going into the week more or less blind in terms of dry-weather data.
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After a one-two in Okayama, the two NISMO-run Nissan Zs are the heaviest in the GT500 field in terms of success ballast on 42kg and 30kg. That means the marque’s victory hopes are likely to rest on the #1 Impul machine of Bertrand Baguette and Kazuki Hiramine, which comes to Fuji carrying only 10kg of ballast after finishing sixth at Okayama.
“The last test here was rainy, so we all have a lack of long-run data,” Baguette told Motorsport.com. “The previous time we tested [in February] it was quite cold, so the data from there is not something you can really trust. But Honda has looked strong in all the tests this winter, so I am sure they will be at the front, and TOM’S is also strong here at Fuji.
“On our side, Fuji was a good track for Nissan last year, so I hope we can fight for a podium at least. If not, I will be a bit disappointed and we will have work to do.”
Baguette is a major proponent of SUPER GT’s 450km race format, which opens up more strategic options with two refuelling stops required. Like last year, driver changes are not required at every stop, and double-stinting tyres is also an option, which in theory makes it possible to gamble on an early pitstop and gain ground with a caution period.
“We saw some teams last year pitting early and double-stinting the tyre at the beginning, and I’m sure some will try it again,” said Baguette. “That’s the beauty of these longer races with the strategy, it will be wide open, although I think people might play it a bit safer this time.”
TOM’S Toyota driver Ukyo Sasahara thinks that double-stinting tyres won’t prove popular. “Maybe one or two teams will try it, but I think most people will change tyres at each pitstop,” he told Motorsport.com. “Maybe you would try it if it looks like you won’t score points.”
While double-stinting may still be viewed as a risk, there’s a clear advantage to be gained by only completing one driver change instead of doing so at every stop, which used to be mandatory. Each driver (assuming two drivers per car) must complete a minimum of 34 laps of the 100, and there’s a certain logic in the starting driver clearing that number just to avoid any trouble later on.
“I think people will only do one driver change because it takes time, and if something happens during the driver change, you could be out of the competition,” said Sasahara.
Baguette added: “Usually the third stint is shorter, so you have a shorter refuel time, and it can be quite stressful to try and complete a driver change in that time. Also, it’s better to keep the same driver in the car if he is feeling good.
“It’s difficult to keep the same driver in for the first and second stint because you have the limit of driver time, so it’s easier to do with the second and third stints.”
Fuel economy is also crucial at Fuji. Recent gains in efficiency mean that a stint of up to 46-47 laps may be possible for some GT500 cars, depending on the manufacturer, although two formation laps means that figure is likely to be only 44-45 laps for the opening stint.
It raises the possibility that some teams could clear their first stops as early as around lap nine or 10, splitting the remainder of the race between two longer stints, although this would almost certainly necessitate double-stinting the tyres to be worthwhile.
While Sasahara is confident of a strong showing as both TOM’S cars are carrying no success weight following their woes at Okayama, he admits that Honda’s fuel economy - which he has first-hand experience of - could be a worry.
“We have no success weight, and Fuji is usually a good track for the Supra, so it’s a good chance for us,” said Sasahara, who shares the #37 car with Giuliano Alesi.
“But the Nissan Z is quite strong in a straight line, but the two Michelin cars have weight, and Honda has quite a draggy car for Fuji. That means the Supra has a good chance, but I think Honda is also the strongest in terms of fuel management… that’s the thing I am worried about. It’s not easy to catch up to that level overnight, but Toyota is pushing hard.”
Real Racing man Nobuharu Matsushita however doesn’t feel that Honda has any particular advantage in terms of fuel economy, pointing to Toyota as the marque to beat considering that the two NISMO Nissans will be disadvantaged by their success ballast.
“Toyota and Nissan are always quick at Fuji, but because the Michelin cars have some weight, I think Toyota will be strongest, especially #14 [Rookie Racing] and #36 [TOM’S],” said Matsushita, who shares the Real car with Koudai Tsukakoshi.
“[Fellow Honda teams] ARTA and Kunimitsu are usually consistent at Fuji, and they tested here [in February], whereas we didn’t do a proper dry test here. I think we can score points and if we get a top five, that would be good.”
Matsushita adds that it may be advantageous for Real not to win at Fuji as to allow it the best possible chance of victory for the following race at Suzuka, traditionally a stronger track for the team.
Likewise, Baguette said he isn’t feeling too much pressure considering the series’ success ballast structure: “It’s only the second round of the season, and last year [in Round 2] we were slow and we were quite lucky to be on the podium.
“We were nowhere in terms of pace and we still won the championship. If we are last, I might be worried, but if we are least fighting for a podium, then the alarm bells won’t be ringing yet.”
