The electorate of Dunkley in Melbourne’s southeast has swapped hands between the major parties several times since its creation in 1984, but had been held by the Liberals for 23 years until the late Peta Murphy, with the help of a redistribution, defied Scott Morrison’s miraculous 2019 victory to take the seat off Chris Crewther. Murphy then consolidated Labor’s hold in 2022 as part of the general swing against the Liberals.
All of this makes this weekend’s by-election genuinely hard to predict. With the narrative building that it could be hugely consequential for both party leaders, let’s break down some of the rhetoric of the campaign.
What they say about their chances
While neither can quite agree on what history tells us to expect on Saturday, the party leaders have a sort of unity ticket in what they mean.
“In his address to caucus on Tuesday, [Prime Minister Anthony] Albanese noted that since 1983, the average swing against governments in government-held seats in by-elections was 7.1%.” (Via the Financial Review)
“Addressing his own party, [Opposition leader Peter] Dutton pointed out that no first-term government had lost one of its seats in a by-election since World War II, and the swing against governments in all by-elections has been 3.6% on average, and just 1.5% for first-term governments”. (Via The Saturday Paper)
What they mean: “If we win, it will be a major achievement that endorses my every move as leader. If we lose, it’s no big deal because everything was against us.”
What they say about Advance’s campaign
Right-wing campaigners Advance have gone hard in Dunkley, pushing a campaign around last year’s decision by Australia’s High Court that indefinite immigration detention is unlawful and the subsequent release of asylum seekers; whom Advance call “rapists, paedophiles and murderers”.
What Albanese says: “It’s an example of where you see the bloke who’s trying to smile more and be a little bit nice and less nasty [having] the nasty stuff being run by the Advance campaign, so he can just run the little-bit-nasty stuff.”
What he means: “Advance has already ruined my first term once, I’ll be damned if they do it again”.
What Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy says: “They’re not part of our campaign and I have never met them, but it’s a free country and they can have their say.”
What he means: “Is this kind of thing enough to get people to say I’ve ‘distanced‘ myself from them? I’m not going to actually criticise a group that’s spending more trying to get me elected than my party is.”
What they say about the tax cuts
What Albanese says: “We hope to get a good result in the Dunkley by-election, and everyone in Dunkley will know that we wanted every single taxpayer in Dunkley to get a tax cut.”
What Labor’s candidate Jodie Belyea says: “Easing the cost of living is my number one priority. Labor is working to help, that’s why from July 1 we’re delivering tax cuts for every taxpayer.”
What they mean: “Dear God all this “Liar-bility” stuff had better pay off …”
What they say about each other
What Liberal Party ads say: “Albanese has broken his promises.”
What it means: “I hope no one remembers we supported the biggest broken promise.”
What Labor ads say: “[Conroy is] Peter Dutton’s handpicked candidate”.
What it means: “I hope everyone remembers just how much they hate Peter Dutton in Victoria.”
