Running the ball still matters
What makes an offense great? In short, the ability to effectively attack multiple parts of the field and stress defenses. Good offenses can do something so well that defenses have to adjust to stop it. Great offenses punish defenses for those adjustments.
We live in a passing era, but running the ball efficiently is still the best way to force a defense to adapt. This isn’t about outdated thinking that toughness wins championships. A strong run game forces the defense to comprise its personnel groupings: they must get big to slow the run, leaving them vulnerable to the pass.
In the good old days, teams used to run on early downs to set up the pass. Now that’s inverted, so teams often pass early. But those early downs passing concepts are all built out of the threat of the run – RPOs, play-action passes and dropback concepts that feature one of the oh-so-fearful initial run actions.
Under center play action is the best way to pass on early downs in the NFL. Play action from gun isn’t as effective. Marrying run and pass looks is the key. Not how well or often you run
— Greg Olsen (@gregolsen88) January 16, 2024
Coaches call it “layering the offense”, one look, one formation, one play, flowing into every other dish available on the menu. The first brick in the wall to hoodwinking the defense – through personnel, pre-snap movement or a play-fake – is the run game, even if running the ball in and of itself isn’t as impactful as it was 20 years ago.
The 49ers and Ravens finished first and second in rush success rate this season. The Lions finished seventh. Only the Chiefs finished outside the top 10 and, well, the Chiefs are blessed with Patrick Mahomes. And even KC ran the ball effectively enough when it mattered most: they rank seventh among playoff teams in rush EPA per play, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. The Ravens’ offense fell apart in the AFC title game when they ditched their typical run game, turning the offense into a plodding, predictable mess when trying to throw the ball.
All four were willing to slam the ball into the line of scrimmage to be able to get to their palette of play-action plays. The final four teams all finished in the top 10 in play-action effectiveness this season.
Running the ball well doesn’t trigger a strong play-action game, but having the defense really, truly believe you want to run the ball is what makes play-action sing. That requires a commitment, even if it isn’t the single most effective play on any given down.
Don’t overpay for your defensive line
The quickest path to being a contender is generating a pass-rush with four defenders. For generations, that meant piling cash and draft resources into your defensive line, letting four defenders tee off and hoping the investment would hit.
That’s changing. Defenses are more creative in how they’re able to create pressure using four rushers, relying on their scheme as much as their individual players. Three of this year’s crop of conference finalists were among the stingiest teams in the league in paying their defensive line and edge defenders. And the team that paid (by far) the most, the Niners, posted the lower pressure rate of any of the final four. The Lions, Chiefs and Ravens committed 10% or fewer of their cap to down linemen and edge defenders. Detroit and KC wound up with the highest pressure rates in the league. Here’s what each of this year’s conference finalists devoted to their defensive line and edge defenders, and what their return was.
Niners – 22% of the cap (2nd); 17th in pressure rate
Lions – 10% of the cap (24th); 1st in pressure rate
Chiefs – 10% of the cap (25th); 2nd in pressure rate
Ravens – 9% of the cap (31st); 23rd in pressure rate
Even the Ravens, who finished in the lower third of the league in pressure rate, topped the NFL in sacks. In 2023, finding a defensive coordinator who can build a cohesive unit, toggle coverages effectively and craft a quality blitz and pressure package is more valuable than paying a handful of star pass-rushers.
Find a quarterback who can scramble
No offense can subsist on a steady diet of a quarterback who freelances – just ask the Packers during those final Aaron Rodgers years. But the ability to extend and create out of structure has never been more valuable. Lamar Jackson and Mahomes are two of the league’s best creators, even as they have evolved to play more patiently in the pocket.
The NFC Championship showed the distinction between an offense whose quarterback can create all by himself and one that relies on the machine functioning at its peak. The Niners would have been bounced from the postseason were it not for a career day from their quarterback, Brock Purdy, as an out-of-time creator. Purdy picked up six first downs on scramble plays against the Lions, sustaining drives when his receivers were covered down the field. He diced up Detroit with his legs and arms during the Niners’ second-half comeback by taking the game into his own hands rather than relying on the design of the offense.
It’s a curious thing about Purdy. As the game goes on, he becomes more willing to move and create. In the first half of games, he generally sticks to the script. When the Niners fall behind, though, he enters escape-artist mode and unlocks an element of Kyle Shanahan’s offense that was sorely lacking when Jimmy Garoppolo was running the show.
The challenge to the rule: Jared Goff. Goff is not a creator. He’s a rhythm-based quarterback who plays hit-the-back-foot-and-sling-it football from the pocket. When forced to extend, Goff turns into a puddle of panic. But the Lions hit on a neat solution this season. Rather than asking Goff to play back yard football when the initial play faltered, they built in escape valves to rookie tight end Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta finished with the second-highest number of first-down completions this season, behind only Travis Kelce, racking up a ton of yardage after the catch. Having the tight end serve as a team’s primary after-the-catch threat tilts the geometry for the defense. They’re typically attacking the middle of the field, which offers higher percentage throws to the quarterback.
Not every team can land a Jackson, Mahomes or even a Purdy. Finding a natural creator is nearing on a must if a team wants to win in the postseason. But if you don’t have that luxury, you best go and find a tight end who can do damage after the catch. It took the Lions to within four plays of the Super Bowl.
There isn’t one kind of head coach that succeeds
Recent coaching carousels have been defined by hot-shot offensive coordinators. Anyone in Sean McVay’s phonebook has been given a shot to run a franchise. But this year’s final group of coaches was a reminder there are multiple ways to build a contender.
In the final four we had two offensive play-callers (Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan), a former special teams coach (John Harbaugh) and a tight ends coach turned all-seeing, all-knowing, all-vibes CEO-type (Dan Campbell).
The league has taken note. Ben Johnson and Bobby Slowik, the next offensive gurus off the conveyor belt, were finalists for multiple jobs in the current cycle. Both decided to return to their teams for another run. Rather than dropping to the next run of talented offensive play-callers, teams pivoted elsewhere.
Here’s how the current cycle ended:
Commanders: Dan Quinn, Cowboys defensive coordinator
Seahawks: Mike Macdonald, Ravens defensive coordinator
Falcons: Raheem Morris, Rams defensive coordinator
Panthers: Dave Canales, Buccaneers offensive coordinator
Chargers: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan head coach
Titans: Brian Callahan, Bengals offensive coordinator
Raiders: Antonio Pierce, Raiders interim head coach/linebackers coach
Patriots: Jerod Mayo, Patriots inside linebackers coach
For those counting, that’s three defensive coordinators, one college head coach, two linebackers coaches and two offensive coordinators. Only one – Canales in Tampa – fits under the offensive whiz-kid umbrella. Harbaugh is one of the game’s top quarterback coaches, but he has shuffled into more of a CEO role as his career has progressed. Callahan worked in partnership with Joe Burrow to transport the quarterback’s offense from LSU to the pros; Callahan fits more into the Dan Campbell culture-overseer band than that of a schematic guru.
Even if we hand the sage tag to Harbaugh and Callahan, that’s still a five-three split between in favor of defensive-minded coaches.
Everyone wants to find a clean formula for the next, great head coach. But the job is unique. No other position prepares a coach for the top job in the building more than any other, no matter how close you stood to McVay on the sideline.
