Star guard Damian Lillard landing with the Heat, his preferred destination as he requests out of Portland, still appears to be the most likely outcome at some point this summer, even as the situation now drags on into its second month.
But for all the expectations and tea leaves that make it seem like a mere matter of time for him to land with Miami, it’s fair to wonder what the defending Eastern Conference champs would look like should Lillard somehow end up elsewhere come the start of the 2023–24 season.
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There’s the question of how key players who have been the focus of constant trade rumors—Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry—would perform after having their names floated all summer. (It’s been widely reported that a third trade partner would almost certainly be necessary to facilitate a Lillard deal between Miami and Portland.) Lowry lifted his play in the postseason, in which the No. 8 seed Heat advanced all the way to the NBA Finals. But aside from being 37 years old to start this coming campaign, Lowry also had his worst regular-season efficiency since the 2014–15 season this past year. In Herro’s case, he can occasionally score in bunches and certainly get his own shot. But no one could be blamed for questioning his value to this particular club, given that Miami—at its best, a tenacious defense—made the Finals as an underdog without him playing after Game 1 in the first round.
We should expect the Erik Spoelstra–coached team to have a solid defense the way it just about always does, even while using zone far more often than any other club. But it’s obviously worth pointing out that a couple of key players in Miami’s system, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, are now members of the Cavaliers and Lakers, respectively, after being on the free-agency carousel. Aside from knowing and perfectly fitting the Heat’s system, they were 3-and-D players who never invited the question of how committed they were to toughness and defense. The Miami organization gets endless credit for internal player development—the Heat had seven undrafted players on its NBA Finals roster—yet it’s far from a given that Josh Richardson or Jaime Jaquez Jr. can merely step in and replace the production. (That said, Miami as an organization is at least familiar with Richardson, who began his career with the team.)
Perhaps the biggest thing to watch should the Heat not land Lillard: It would potentially mean another year of depending on Jimmy Butler, who turns 34 next month and slowed down quite a bit as the playoffs wore on after sustaining an ankle injury in the second round against the Knicks. Herro and Lowry would have plenty of ballhandling responsibility if the roster turns out to look the same in six weeks. And the team would be thrilled if Bam Adebayo makes more offensive strides. (Wing Caleb Martin made a leap last season, and increased self-creation from him in the near future could turn out to be a game-changer.) But Butler will have plenty on his shoulders as the best scoring playmaker yet again if Lillard doesn’t come to Miami. And on some level, that’d be less than ideal, as Butler’s body would presumably be saved at least some if he had a superstar teammate with scoring and playmaking talent.
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It’s hard to imagine the Heat not closing the deal for Lillard, given how public the All-NBA guard’s request to land there was. But Miami also just won its conference, albeit as a No. 8 seed, with much of this core. So the club will almost certainly feel like it holds the majority of the leverage in this scenario. All of which makes it at least worth pondering the state of the Heat if the staring contest ends with the team running it back as is instead of swinging a huge trade.
