After back-to-back seasons of winning at least 46 games, the Sacramento Kings decided they were tired of just being a good team and wanted to become a great one. So, they made myriad offseason moves to try and take that next step.
But here we are a quarter into the season now, and the Kings are even worse than before. They’re 9-12 and 12th in the Western Conference, and have lost six of their past seven games. This cold start has left fans around the league wondering: What went wrong?
Generally speaking, when bad things happen to us, there are internal and external forces at play. Something bad has happened to the Kings, and they have both themselves and the universe to blame.
Internal Forces
The marquee move the Kings made this offseason was a sign-and-trade involving the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs that landed them six-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan.
On paper, this was a home run move. They got a top-50ish player on a good contract (three years, $73.9 million), and all they had to give up was a starter who didn’t really move the needle (Harrison Barnes), a low-end rotation player (Chris Duarte), some second-round picks and a 2031 first-round pick swap.
But basketball isn’t about accumulating as much talent as possible. To win big in this league, you need talent, fit and depth. The Kings have plenty of talent, but their pursuit of that has left them with little of the other two.
By adding DeRozan, Sacramento created a surplus of offensively slanted players who love the ball in their hands: DeRozan, De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Domantas Sabonis. On-ball creation is an important skill, but in a game with limited resources, an abundance of one skill comes at a cost elsewhere. For the Kings, their decision to prioritize this skill-set has led to deficiencies in shooting, spacing, size and defense across the roster.
Outside of Monk, none of the Kings’ Big Four are above average 3-point shooters. Considering how many minutes they command, their shortcomings have permeated through the team’s collective approach. Sacramento is 22nd in 3-point rate and 25th in 3-point percentage.
Not having great shooters kills your spacing, which makes it harder for players to get to the hoop. The Kings are last in rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. Since they don’t attempt many threes or shots around the basket, that means they take a ton of midrange jumpers (first in frequency). To their credit, they are a great at those shots (first in midrange efficiency), but those are still the least efficient looks in the game. That’s why a team with so much offensive talent is only 10th in offensive rating.
Outside of Fox, the Kings’ three offensive stars are all below average defenders and undersized for their position. This forces them to make serious concessions to protect the paint. Ranking first in opposing rim frequency, they completely sell out to stop teams from taking shots inside. But that comes at a cost and they allow the league’s second-most threes to opposing offenses.
In a vacuum, protecting the paint is of greater concern than safeguarding the perimeter. But letting teams hoist such a high volume of threes leaves you susceptible to heaters, hence why the Kings have surrendered the most 40 percent 3-point shooting games in the association this season.
Despite all the problems the sticky fit of Sacramento’s Core Four create, the lineup of Fox-Monk-DeRozan-Sabonis-Keegan Murray has the highest point differential (plus-23.3 per 100 possessions) of any five-man lineup with at least 150 non-garbage time possessions together this season. It’s the players outside of these five that are killing them.
The Kings are not a deep team and rank 27th in bench points per game. Kevin Huerter and Trey Lyles have struggled mightily. Offseason signings Orlando Robinson, Doug McDermott and Jordan McLaughlin have had moments, but both are deeply flawed players. Jae Crowder is now on the team, but there’s a reason he was unemployed until last week. Lottery pick Devin Carter hasn’t played a minute as he rehabs from offseason shoulder surgery. Isaac Jones has been a cool story, but this situation is well above his pay grade.
Keon Ellis is the only other player they can count on, and even he has lapses that make it hard for head coach Mike Brown to trust him.
External Forces
As much as the Kings have dug their own grave, lady luck hasn’t been smiling in their direction either.
The most obvious outside variable at play here is shooting luck. For the second straight year, they’re are top three in a stat you never want to be top three in: opponent shooting on wide open threes. Teams are shooting 42 percent against them in those situations. How opponents fare on wide open threes is basically out of a team’s control and almost completely based on luck.
You could argue the Kings’ proclivity to sacrifice threes to protect the paint leaves them particularly vulnerable to these shots. However, the Golden State Warriors, which ranks second behind Sacramento in opponent rim frequency, have been blessed with the lowest opponent 3-point percentage on wide open threes at 32.9 percent.
The Kings have also had a rough go with their own 3-point shooting. They don’t have great shooting personnel, but they’re definitely better than the 33.2 percent clip they’ve converted this season. Specifically, the team’s best shooters — Huerter, Lyles, Murray, McDermott and Crowder — are all shooting well below their career averages.
After two years of having fewer than 130 games missed due to injuries (Spotrac), the injury bug has finally bitten the Kings. If they continue at their current rate, that number will be ~226 by the end of the season. Missing key players — DeRozan, Monk and Sabonis have already sat out a combined 14 games — is a massive disadvantage, especially with a roster as shallow as this one.
The last main part of the Kings’ misfortune is their clutch performance. They’ve been in a league-high 13 clutch games and are 5-8 in those games, per NBA.com. This is curious since they won over 50 percent of their clutch games each of the last two years before adding DeRozan, who’s one of the NBA’s best closers.
The Bottom Line
Because of their poor shooting, injury and clutch time luck, the Kings are better than their 9-12 record. In reality, they’re probably not far off from how they’ve played the past two seasons under Brown. Unfortunately, their roster imbalances keep them from being anything more than that.
So, if Sacramento wants to avoid dwelling in basketball purgatory, the front office must orchestrate a creative shakeup and propel this team to taller heights.
