Zimbabweans head to the polls Wednesday for presidential and general elections that come amid a worsening economic crisis. It's tipped to be a tight race. While the opposition appears to have seduced the youth vote, the ruling party ZANU-PF still leads the polls.
There are 11 candidates running for president in polls that will also see Zimbabweans also choose lawmakers and local council leaders.
Eighty-year-old incumbent leader Emmerson Mnangagwa of the powerful ZANU-PF, is up against Nelson Chamisa, a 45-year-old lawyer and pastor who leads the opposition Citizens' Coalition for Change (CCC).
Mnangagwa was hailed as a pragmatic leader shortly after taking power, but he scored only a narrow win in 2018 elections over Chamisa, who is still considered the strongest challenger to the incumbent's re-election bid.
The polls come amid a deepening economic crisis marked by high inflation. The government has been accused of closing the democratic space following the passing of the so-called Patriotic Bill, which opponents say outlaws criticism of the state.
Inspiring scenes of unity and determination at our campaign rallies.
— President of Zimbabwe (@edmnangagwa) August 21, 2023
Together, we strive for a future marked by progress, jobs, empowerment, and a stronger Zimbabwe. Let's make our voices heard and cast our votes for a better tomorrow. 🇿🇼🗳️ #ZimbabweDecides #VoteForED pic.twitter.com/90JIJ9cV0E
Low expectations
ZANU-PF, whose supporters live mainly in rural areas, still has the upper hand for a number of reasons, Crisis Group expert Nicolas Delaunay told RFI.
"They used the judiciary and the electoral commission to their advantage, they banned some opposition rallies, they intimidated dissident voices, and they had prominent features in national media. So, the playing field is tilted in favour of ZANU-PF," he said.
Chamisa's opposition movement enjoys considerable support in towns and cities, yet experts have little hope to see change.
Delaunay says this is partly due to the opposition's campaign organisation.
"The structures within the coalition are weak but also the ruling party is using so many tactics that work, they had the campaign in their hands, so it's hard to imagine it bring any major change," he says.
Fear of violence
International election observers highlighted a number of flaws in the 2018 vote, which served Mnangagwa’s electoral interests, and the opposition denounced fraud.
Experts fear a repeat scenario.
Zimbabwe has a history of electoral violence, from the early 1980s, with notable examples in 2008 and 2018.
About 59 per cent of Zimbabweans tell pollsters they fear violence during the 2023 campaign.
At present, the risk of violence appears limited to local, low-level incidents according to experts, but it is not lower than in 2018 according to Delaunay.
"The risk appears relatively low now, and mainly revolves around intimidation and molestation, it's because of the intimidation by ZANU-PF's supporters and the army," he says.
"But we cannot ignore the risk of deadly, post-electoral violence, especially if there are delays in announcing the outcome or blatant manipulations of results."
Historical isolation
Robert Mugabe, who reigned over Zimbabwe for 37 years, was deposed in a coup in November 2017 led by Mnangagwa, his former deputy, who had teamed up with the army to topple him, in what was branded a “military-assisted transition”.
When Mnangagwa came to power, he promised to boost the economy and renew partnerships with the West, especially the US, the UK and European Union and lift sanctions imposed in the Mugabe era.
Mnangagwa’s platform for high-level dialogue was set up in December 2022 only, in order to to facilitate dialogue about governance reforms, to deal with Zimbabwe’s $8.5 billion debt and arrears, and compensation for land seized from white farmers in the early 2000s.
But his promises have fallen flat and Mnangagwa is seen as authoritarian, clinging to power at all costs.
"Overall, the situation remained pretty much the same as under Mugabe, however," Delaunay says. "But now, Zimbabwe is in a dire need for money."
Zimbabweans, isolated on the international scene, face hyperinflation and a severe cost-of-living crisis.
"In the economic field, crony capitalism, which had emerged under Mugabe, has found its breeding ground under the new regime," political analyst and author David Moore, from the University of Johannesburg, told RFI.
"To the point that Zimbabwe today resembles Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, with a real collusion between business and power."
In order to begin to fix this situation, Crisis Group says Zimbabwe's authorities must ensure a clear and credible vote, with a peaceful aftermath, so as not to undermine the re-engagement drive in the country.
