Wales went down to a 2-0 defeat away to Turkey on Monday night in another blow to their Euro 2024 qualifying hopes.
A headed goal from Umut Nayir and a beauty from Ardan Guler in the second half sunk Rob Page's men in Samsun on a night where Wales were reduced to 10 men before the break, with Joe Morrell sent off for a high-boot challenge.
The home side also had a penalty saved and two goals disallowed. The result for Wales comes on the back of a damaging loss to Armenia at home last Friday, with the visitors pulling off a shock 4-2 win at Cardiff City Stadium.
So what does tonight's result mean for Wales' hopes for qualifying at the tournament in Germany next summer? This is the situation explained and the lifeline they have.
Tonight's Group D results
Turkey 2-0 Wales
Armenia 2-1 Latvia
How the Group D table now looks
1. Turkey - P4 W3 D0 L1 GD2 PTS 9
2. Armenia - P3 W2 D0 L1 GD2 PTS 6
3. Croatia - P2 W1 D1 L0 GD2 PTS 4
4. Wales - P4 W1 D1 L2 GD-3 PTS 4
5. Latvia - P3 W0 D0 L3 GD-3 PTS 0
Fixtures left to play
Friday, September 8, 2023
Croatia v Latvia
Turkey v Armenia
Monday, September 11, 2023
Armenia v Croatia
Latvia v Wales
Thursday, October 12, 2023
Croatia v Turkey
Sunday, October 15, 2023
Turkey v Latvia
Wales v Croatia
Saturday, November 18. 2023
Armenia v Wales
Latvia v Croatia
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
Croatia v Armenia
Wales v Turkey
Can Wales still qualify?
It is looking increasingly tricky that Wales can break into the top two, who qualify automatically from the group.
Wales have four games left after tonight's fixture and would effectively have to win all four - including beating Turkey and Croatia at home - to have a chance to sneak into the top spots.
Defeat means Turkey and Croatia will likely progress (although Armenia might fancy themselves to spring a shock), meaning Wales will have to rely on the play-offs for a place in Germany. Wales lost their top tier Nations League status after losing to Poland last September but they have effectively got a play-off space sewn up because the 15 teams ranked higher than Page's men in the Nations League rankings are all on course to qualify automatically for the tournament. Spain are the only side not in the top two places in their group at present but with games in hand they are likely to make it.
Three of the 24 places at the tournament will be determined by play-off spots via the 2022/23 UEFA Nations League.
The play-offs take place on March 21 and 26, 2024. Fixtures will be determined by a series of draws following the conclusion of the European qualifiers for the final tournament. There will be six semi-finals on March 21 and three finals on March 26, with the three winning teams in those games completing the 24-team finals line-up.
