With Dominic Calvert-Lewin now looking like a serious injury doubt for Everton’s survival showdown against Bournemouth, thoughts turn to who should spearhead the home side’s attack at Goodison Park.
Everton’s destiny is in their own hands on the final day of the Premier League season as they look to avoid what would be a first relegation in 72 years. A win for the Blues keeps them up regardless of what Leeds United or Leicester City do in their home games against Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United respectively so Sean Dyche’s side will be looking to be on the front foot against the Cherries.
Calvert-Lewin went off with a hamstring injury an hour into Dyche’s first match in charge – a 1-0 victory over Arsenal on February 1 – and did not return to the side until the goalless draw at Crystal Palace on April 22 as Everton’s medical staff worked to get him fully fit. The 26-year-old has subsequently started the last six matches but was withdrawn at half-time of the 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City and then went off during first half stoppage time of the 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton Wanderers with a hamstring problem that looks set to rule him out of his team’s crucial final fixture.
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The problem for the Blues – who have scored just 33 goals in 37 games – all season has been that they have no viable like-for-like replacement for the England international and whoever Dyche selects, they will bring considerably different attributes up front. Given how high the stakes are, it could be a career-defining call for the 51-year-old Blues boss.
The man Everton brought in for £15million from Brighton & Hove Ablion early in the season as Calvert-Lewin’s supposed main alternative was Neal Maupay. However, despite netting 26 times in 102 Premier League outings for the Seagulls (something resembling a reasonable one in four strike rate), the Frenchman has struck just once in 27 matches for the Blues this term.
There’s just no way that the diminutive 5ft 8in Maupay can slot in seamlessly for someone like 6ft 2in Calvert-Lewin who is one of the most aerially-dominant centre-forwards in the Premier League and such a mismatch invariably must bring question marks over the recruitment policy by director of football Kevin Thelwell and former manager Frank Lampard for bringing him to be deployed in such a role he is incapable of fulfilling. Just what does Maupay bring to the table then?
An examination of his offensive parameters on Comparisonator shows that he actually gets slightly more shots in than Calvert-Lewin per 90 minutes (1.9 to 1.82) and more on target (1.02 to 0.73). He runs less at defenders though with just 1.32 dribbles to 2.26 and a mere 0.51 of these are successful compared to 1.24.
Maupay has fewer attacking actions too with 3.44 to 4.51 with 1.54 successful attacking actions to 1.96. Despite this, his expected goals figure is the same as Calvert-Lewin’s at 0.39.
In terms of stature, Ellis Simms, who is an inch taller than Calvert-Lewin at 6ft 3in is the closest match but despite the Oldham-born player’s height, he doesn’t operate so much as a conventional target man. Although the 22-year-old’s game time has been much more limited, it’s intriguing to see that he gets in 3.83 shots per 90 minutes compared to Calvert-Lewin’s 1.82 but even with that, his 0.64 shots on target can’t match the 0.73 of Everton’s number nine.
Simms’ attacking actions (4.47 to 4.51) are comparable but again this decreases relatively when it comes to successful attacking actions (1.28 to 1.96) and there is much less running at defenders with 0.64 dribbles to Calvert-Lewin’s 2.26 with 0.64 successful dribbles to 1.24. Despite all of this, his expected goals is 0.45 to edge out his senior team-mate’s 0.39.
Then of course there’s Dyche’s wildcard but perhaps the choice he might ultimately be expected to make, Demarai Gray. The Blues boss doesn’t seem to trust the former Leicester City manager down the flanks, preferring instead to use Dwight McNeil and Alex Iwobi because of their willingness to track back more and help their full-backs but he has proven a relatively lively option as a false number nine when deployed in that area.
Looking at Gray’s offensive parameters on the occasions he’s been played up front as opposed to on the flanks, his 1.87 shots per game edges out Calvert-Lewin’s 1.82 and he’s also slightly ahead of him for shots on target with 0.84 to 0.73. As you’d expect from a player who has spent most of his career out wide, there’s plenty of running at defenders with Gray and he’s ahead of Calvert-Lewin for dribbles (3.27 to 2.26) but goes behind him for successful dribbles (1.21 to 1.24).
Gray’s attacking actions are favourable though with 6.07 to Calvert-Lewin’s 4.51 with 2.15 successful attacking actions to 1.96 although his expected goals figure is 0.23 to 0.39. Food for thought certainly but what might be telling is that on both of the previous occasions that Everton needed a result to stay up on the final day of a Premier League season, they survived without a single goal from any of their designated strikers on the day.
Comparisonator is a football data comparison tool from 271 professional leagues around the world which compares players and clubs by utilising over 100 different parameters. Click here for more details.
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