Predicting Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2022 huddle has been a process of elimination this offseason.
And the 49ers haven’t been eliminated. Yet.
Will there be a surprise welcome-home party?
Will he, after exhaustive market analysis, find a reasonable suitor via trade?
Will the 49ers cut him, five months after reaching a second NFC Championship Game in three seasons?
Almost all signs point to Trey Lance taking over after a pseudo-redshirt rookie year. An offramp eventually will surface for Garoppolo, whose farewell message in January was: “It’s been a hell of a ride, guys.” But, yet, he remains with the 49ers.
Let’s handicap each scenario, knowing things could get answered before training camp opens July 26 or perhaps even drag into a regular season that begins Sept. 11 in Garoppolo’s hometown of Chicago:
1. INJURY LIST OPTIONS
If Garoppolo reports with his adoring teammates for camp, this conceivably goes two ways. One, he’s stashed on an injury list to keep him off the practice field for days, perhaps weeks, perhaps so the 49ers can wait for his trade market to reignite. Or, two, he’s cleared for a QB competition, one that still won’t rival the Montana-Young heat amid a dynasty but still will generate massive attention.
Garoppolo is eligible to open camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. He was excused from the 49ers’ offseason program and minicamp to continue rehabilitation in Los Angeles from March 8 surgery on his throwing shoulder. He hurt that wing in the playoff-opening win at Dallas (a shoulder he also hurt in 2016).
When Garoppolo returned from knee reconstruction in 2019, he did not open camp on the PUP list, and instead was full-go from the outset all the way to Super Bowl LIV. Heck, if he goes on PUP now and doesn’t come off it all season, the last year of his contract tolls into 2023, according to the collective bargaining agreement.
When Colin Kaepernick came off shoulder surgery for 2016 camp, 49ers doctors cleared him, only to see him develop arm tightness after two weeks. He rested two preseason games and didn’t reclaim his starting role until Week 6 of his final season.
Kyle Shanahan said in June that Garoppolo’s right thumb injury (in December at Tennessee) didn’t require surgery. Mind you, he only began throwing two to three weeks ago, The Athletic reported. If the thumb or shoulder flares up, well, then more injury-list time could keep Garoppolo shelved. By the way, being on the PUP list to start the season would eliminate him from playing the first six games, and his $24 million salary would still be in effect.
2. ‘HELL OF A RIDE’ RESUMES
If Garoppolo is not traded, Shanahan said in June he expects him to practice at camp. Asked if he’d excuse him from action, Shanahan replied: “I’ll think about that when that day comes, but Jimmy is under contract with us, and if he was healthy, right now I would see him coming to practice. Unless we traded him.”
Garoppolo’s agent, Don Yee, did not return messages seeking comment, but he told NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero on Monday that Garoppolo is “progressing well and on schedule. We’re optimistic about the upcoming season.”
Garoppolo surely would be eased into practice, giving Lance more first-team reps, which he took all of this offseason. Aug. 12 is the preseason opener against the Packers, who Garoppolo and the 49ers upset amid the Lambeau Field snow for their last playoff win.
Brace for Garoppolo-Lance daily stat updates if the 49ers allow for a camp competition – and all the distraction that comes with it. That follows a summer in which Garoppolo rehabbed behind the scenes. Lance not only was QB1 at 49ers HQ but also did extensive work with 49ers’ receivers in Southern California private workouts, including one this week in which Brandon Aiyuk mocked recent reports that Lance is prone to arm fatigue.
3. LANDING SPOTS?
Before reminding you which teams made quarterback moves that blocked Garoppolo’s path to them, some still could find him handy:
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson’s potential suspension could expedite their need to bring in Garoppolo to lead a similar, run-oriented offense under coach Kevin Stefanski. This is a quarterback graveyard, however.
New York Giants: Garoppolo is 4-0 vs. the NFC East in his career, and he could be a savvy find if new coach Brian Daboll ends the Daniel Jones experiment. Daboll was a New England Patriots assistant in Garoppolo’s first three NFL seasons there.
Houston Texans: All due respect to Stanford product Davis Mills but Garoppolo’s veteran presence might be more coveted for a youth-laden roster under Lovie Smith. The Texans’ chaotic state (of their franchise) should scare off Garoppolo, who met the Houston humidity in 2018 training camp there.
Seattle Seahawks: This just doesn’t seem likely, at least not via an in-division trade. But Geno Smith and Drew Lock don’t inspire confidence as long-term caretakers. Maybe the Seahawks just want a gap-year option before they return to contention in 2023.
Other spots that wouldn’t be shocking: the Detroit Lions, the New England Patriots or the Philadelphia Eagles.
4. OUT OF THE MARKET
One injury could thrust any team into the Garoppolo market, such as in 2016 when the Vikings summoned Sam Bradford from the Eagles to replace Teddy Bridgewater, who got hurt a few days earlier.
While Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery kept some teams from pursuing him, the NFL’s quarterback carousel was at a whirlwind. Here are which teams looked elsewhere, for either a starter or a prime backup instead of Garoppolo:
Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
Indianapolis Colts: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Nick Foles (Bears)
Cleveland Browns: Watson (Texans), Jacoby Brissett (Dolphins)
Carolina Panthers: Baker Mayfield (Browns), Matt Corral (draft)
Washington Commanders: Carson Wentz (Colts)
Atlanta Falcons: Marcus Mariota (Raiders), Desmond Ridder (draft)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mitchell Trubisky (Bills), Kenny Pickett (draft)
New Orleans Saints: Jameis Winston (Saints), Andy Dalton (Bears)
Seattle Seahawks: Lock (Broncos), Smith (Seahawks)
Miami Dolphins: Bridgewater (Broncos)
New York Giants: Tyrod Taylor (Texans)
5. CUTTING TIES
The 49ers haven’t released Garoppolo yet, so why would they do so before camp, when his salary doesn’t become guaranteed until Week 1 in September? True, a $7.5 million injury guarantee could impact things.
But whatever distraction might come from having him around to compete or rehab would seem like familiar ground, that the 49ers already plowed last season with him and Lance working side by side.
The 49ers have $4.375 million in salary cap space, so keeping Garoppolo on the books is not prohibiting them from crafting an extension for Deebo Samuel (or Nick Bosa) if they creatively move guaranteed money into 2023. Perhaps Garoppolo would take a pay cut in hopes of reclaiming cash via incentives.
For those scoffing at a $24 million salary for a backup, indeed, that’s insanely bloated, but the 49ers can defend it by saying they’re committing $35 million of the cap to Garoppolo and Lance, not to mention another $2 million to would-be backup Nate Sudfeld. The Titans have a $39 million cap figure just for Ryan Tannehill and the Chiefs have a $36 million slot for Patrick Mahomes.
The 49ers’ brass, including ownership, remains fond of Garoppolo. Eventually he’ll be pushed out the door. If he wants to leave on his own recognizance publicly, they’d likely do that, if a market remains dry through camp, which is still two weeks from beginning.
What if Garoppolo, at age 30, wants to retire? He’s indicated otherwise, that he hopes to rebound from shoulder surgery for a long career. No one would blame him if he after building up credible career equity (over $110 million, a 37-16 starting record, two Super Bowl rings as Tom Brady’s backup). He could go lead a life of leisure and do endorsements (cue: Subway commercial line how “it’s a good thing he’s so handsome.”)
Or he could look to cash in on the NFL’s never-ending financial boom, where the rich can get richer, whoever employs them.
