Russian President Vladimir Putin has responded to recent military setbacks with defiance. After Ukrainian military successes this fall, Putin has ordered the hasty mobilization of several hundred thousand more troops, orchestrated sham referendums in occupied areas to formally incorporate them into Russia, issued increasingly explicit nuclear threats, and launched a wave of missile strikes across Ukraine. Many attribute this behavior to uniquely terrifying characteristics of Putin and his regime and argue that the West should force Ukraine to give in, lest the war escalate to terrifying new levels of carnage and destruction.
That would be a mistake. Early in the war, Moscow’s effort was plagued by ignorance, overconfidence, and bad planning. Those problems are hardly unique to Russia, having marked many U.S. interventions, as well. Now that Moscow has run into trouble, the Kremlin’s anger in the face of defeat is also familiar, resembling how the Nixon administration approached the Vietnam War half a century ago. Bluster, bombing, and nuclear saber rattling didn’t work then, and eventually, Washington accepted reality and withdrew from the conflict. It is possible to get Moscow to do the same today.
