As it became clear on Sunday evening that Marine Le Pen will face incumbent Emmanuel Macron in the second round of France's presidential election, the European Union and NATO are coming to terms with the possibility of a Euroskeptic leader in the Elysée Palace - one who has been a longtime enthusiast of Russian president Vladimir Putin.
For Brussels, Washington and NATO, the next 10 days will be crucial for all three to take on board whether Paris will remain committed to the European project and stay on side against Putin's war in Ukraine.
When Le Pen faced Macron in the 2017 run-off, the National Front candidate lost having garnered only 34 percent of the vote.
After meticulously rebranding the far-right party in a bid to attract more mainstream conservative voters, the leader of the newly renovated National Rally has refined her image, toned down her rhetoric and reconciled France's role within the European Union.
With all the spit-and-polish that has brought the National Rally into the heart of France's political mainstream, polling agencies expect her to offer Macron a much more serious challenge for the presidency than she did five years ago.
But many of Le Pen's detractors and opponents at a European level are unconvinced that her core external policies have changed.
.@MLP_officiel : "Une grande majorité de Français ne veut plus de l'Union européenne telle qu'elle est aujourd'hui. L'Europe, je ne la conteste pas ; qu'il y ait des collaborations, bien sûr. Mais ça ne peut pas se faire contre la volonté des peuples" #le79Inter #Elysee2022 pic.twitter.com/JiiRUbMllW
— France Inter (@franceinter) April 12, 2022
No 'secret agenda' for pulling out of EU
Speaking on France Inter this Tuesday morning, Le Pen stressed that she has no "secret agenda" for France to leave the European Union, even if her vocal attempts to reform the bloc fail.
However, she did underline that she believes "a large majority of French people no longer want the European Union as it exists today."
She continued by blasting the European Union that she believes functions in "an absolutely undemocratic way, which advances by threat, by blackmail and which implements policies that are against the interests of the people."
Although Marine Le Pen has ditched past plans to haul France out of the EU, the free-movement Schengen zone and the euro, her cynicism towards Brussels remains intact.
Ultimately, Le Pen envisages the EU as an alliance of member states, and when asked if she would leave the EU if all her attempts to reform the bloc failed, she replied: "Not at all."
The policies: what the second-round candidates, Le Pen and Macron, stand for
Macron backpedals on retirement age to appeal to working class voters on the left
'Aloof' Macron must engage
For the outgoing president Emmanuel Macron, he will be seeking to refocus the agenda on Europe, insisting to his supporters - and the undecided electorate - that Le Pen's policies would create a deep crisis within the European Union.
Le Pen won her 23.15 percent behind Macron's 27.85 percent by appealing directly to France's working class voters on the issues of purchasing power, energy prices and better living conditions.
Macron, who entered the campaign late, refused to engage in any debate and appeared to be aloof to the concerns of the people of France, with more international grandstanding over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Since Sunday's result, the incumbent has come to terms with the fact that he has a lot of convincing to do on the ground between now and 24 April, to keep the electorate on his side and maintain his advantage as a president seeking re-election in a time of war and crisis in Europe.
📹 Avec nous, le choix des Français 🇫🇷 sera TOUJOURS prioritaire ! L'UE doit se plier aux volontés des peuples européens : voilà une différence majeure avec Emmanuel Macron !#presidentielles2022 #MarinePrésidente pic.twitter.com/B3FHypMZW9
— David Rachline Ⓜ️ (@david_rachline) April 12, 2022
Europe's far-right partners
Speaking to RFI this Tuesday, David Rachline went for Macron's jugular over his track record in giving the people of France a voice when it comes to the European Union.
"We are ready for a debate on this subject," said Rachline, the Rassemblement National's vice-president. "[Macron] does not want to touch anything, to change anything, whereas the European Union must be re-founded. It must be profoundly reformed."
Rachline maintains that the French "want to be freer, more independent" and have their democratic choices respected along with their partners in Europe.
It should be remarked that those partners include Germany's ultra-nationalist AfD, Italy's Lega party and of course excellent relations with Hungary's freshly re-elected Viktor Orban and Poland's Law and Justice administration under Andrzej Duda.
Within the European Union, the national control of immigration and security unites them.
But for the Rassemblement National, the party "wants to engage in economic protectionism in order to save French companies and to better protect them," Rachline told RFI, adding there are two very different visions of the EU at play in the second round campaign. Macron want's to maintain Europe like "a sieve" while Le Pen wants a Europe that "protects".
Le Pen insists that France's national laws should prevail over European legislation, a move that has already seen Poland being sanctioned by the European Commission for doing the very same.
"The European Union must also bend to the will of the European people," Rachline insists. "[The EU] must at least take them into account, which is not the case today.
"This is also a major difference in vision between Emmanuel Macron and us. We want the European Union to finally take into account the voice of the European people."
NATO, Le Pen and Putin
But if a future "President Le Pen" marches to Brussels to renegotiate everything and is stone-walled by European institutions, what will the consequences be? Could it go as far as France's withdrawal from the EU, triggering a so-called "Frexit" if a far-right government in Paris doesn't get what it wants?
"Let's leave room for debate, let's leave room for this negotiation," Rachline replied inconclusively. "We want to have this debate. We want to set it up and negotiate ... We have a lot of European partners and groups within the European Parliament which will enable us to make these democratic choices tomorrow for the benefit of the European people."
However, when it comes to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, Le Pen's desire to pull out of the alliance's integrated command has rung alarm bells at NATO's HQ.
In what is styled as a selfless commitment for the French "to be no longer caught up in conflicts that are not ours", France remains the only European nuclear power within the alliance, and her previous close relations with Vladimir Putin have provoked particular concern.
Although Le Pen has outwardly condemned Putin's invasion of Ukraine, she has been hesitant on sanctioning Russian coal and gas supplies as it could have an adverse effect on French living standards.
It would appear over the next 10 days; Marine Le Pen will be unflinching when it comes to holding tight to her populist agenda.
