Newsom's Market Rule #2 tells us: Let the market dictate your actions.
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Sometimes, though, the market gives us conflicting signs. Such is the case in US Treasury futures at the end of March.
The Barchart Brief: Your FREE insider update on the biggest news stories and investing trends, delivered midday The one clear indication is the market does not expect a rate cut by the US Federal Open Market Committee until at least the June 2025 meeting.
At the end of March, the Financials sector (US Treasury futures) within the commodity complex was giving mixed signals. This isn’t overly surprising given the continued state of “certain uncertainty”, reflected by the unchecked uptrend in gold (GCY00) as a safe-haven market. While some will make the argument the uptrend in gold also indicates a fear of inflation due to expanding US trade fights around the world, the commodity complex in general isn’t showing consistent gains. We’ll see, though, once the silliness of “Liberation Day” in the US has come and gone. We also know the next US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for May 6 and 7 meaning more emphasis should be put on what Treasury markets are indicating.
