Here’s a thought experiment. At some point during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a Russian commander gives the order to shoot down two Ukrainian fighter jets. One set of missiles hits its target, but the second accidentally blows up an American spy plane, killing dozens of crew members.
When video of the crash site emerges, Western capitals fill with demonstrations. Misreading the outrage as the opening stages of a military response by NATO countries, Russia decides to strike first, as a deterrent. It targets early warning systems, knocking out satellites and unleashing a cyberattack. In the spreading confusion, as the president of the United States decides to wait for more information, Russia’s leader becomes convinced that enemy missiles are about to rain down on his country and launches nuclear warheads. Tens of millions die, with more succumbing to radiation over the following days and weeks.
