The Cleveland Browns thought they knew what they were getting into when they traded for Deshaun Watson. They knew about more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL would later describe as “predatory behavior.” They also knew Houston officials declined to press charges in the matter and Watson was one of 2020’s best quarterbacks.
So, off-field exploits be damned, the Browns outbid most of the NFC South and shipped three first round picks, a third round selection and two fourth-rounders for a player team owner Jimmy Haslam deemed a franchise savior. They then handed him a fully guaranteed $230 million contract extension — an unprecedented amount that remains the largest fully guaranteed deal in league history. In that extension was language that chopped his 2022 base salary down to just $1 million, mitigating the fines related to the 11-game suspension the NFL levied before Watson could play a snap in Cleveland.
Watson is 9-9 as the Browns’ starting quarterback, which isn’t too bad against the backdrop of general Cleveland quarterbacking. That number looks a lot worse when you consider the team has played 40 games since acquiring him. And it looks absolutely wretched when you consider the defense he’s wasted en route to the least efficient start to any season this millennium.
Jamarcus Russell lost -63.8 total EPA on dropbacks in Weeks 1-6 in 2009.
It was the record low since at least 2000 before Deshaun Watson (-66.2) this season. https://t.co/nAMsZdfxRe
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 13, 2024
It’s impossible to truly illustrate how ineffective Watson has been. But if you need to see it in action, just understand Sunday’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles marked the second straight week the quarterback escaped a clear interception because the two defenders he failed to clock on a badly thrown pass mashed into each other.
At this point, you’re basically throwing games if you don’t bench him. pic.twitter.com/KW5QE4MUno
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 13, 2024
There are mitigating factors at play. Cleveland’s offense has been without Nick Chubb, but Jerome Ford is averaging better than five yards per carry as the team’s fill-in lead back. Its offensive line play has been regrettable, but Watson’s 40 percent pressure rate is five points lower than his 2018 pressure rate as a Houston Texan — a season in which he threw 26 touchdowns to nine interceptions, led his team to 11 wins and was named a Pro Bowler. The circumstances aren’t great, but he’s been much better despite worse.
This is all tremendous for schadenfreude but terrible for the Cleveland Browns. The team is 1-5 and refuses to bench the high paid quarterback who keeps leading his team to new cliffs from which to plummet. Each post-loss press conference suggests the only way out is through, only for Watson to spelunk deeper and deeper into an abyss light hardly penetrates.
The simplest solution would be to bench a player who’s been worse than Jamarcus by-god Russell. The Browns signed Jameis Winston for this very reason. But Winston remains relegated to garbage time for the foreseeable future because Cleveland is trying to save a face it no longer has. Thanks to that — and the hasty decision making that led Watson to Ohio — it’s nearly impossible to offload the NFL’s least valuable player.
Here’s what the Browns have to contend with when it comes to their albatross quarterback.
Watson has unmovable dead salary cap hits of $172 million and $99.7 million the next two seasons
Watson’s massive extension, restructured this offseason to free up 2024 cap space that has so far gone untouched — Cleveland is $45 million under this year’s $255.4 million spending limit, second-most in the league per Over the Cap — shuffled some of his obligations around. The fact remains, however; this is a deal the Browns cannot escape in 2024. Or 2025. And 2026 is a very difficult sell.
Here’s how much Watson would take up in dead salary cap commitments if released any of the next three offseasons before June 1.
- 2025: $172,734,000
- 2026: $99,799,000
- 2027: $26,864,000
Cutting Watson next spring would eat up 63 percent of 2025’s estimated salary cap for a player who wouldn’t play a snap for the team. It would leave an average of $1.88 million in salary for the 53 players who remained. The league’s minimum is currently a shade under $800,000. Designating him a post-June 1 release knocks that number down to $119.9 million, which is better but still very, very bad.
2026 may be the exit year for Cleveland. The current record for largest dead cap hit is the $85 million the Denver Broncos ate to get rid of Russell Wilson. Watson’s near $100 million in commitments would top that, but might be acceptable for a team in dire need of moving forward. Per Over the Cap, things don’t get sunnier after June 1 — his dead cap number actually jumps to $118.9 million if he’s pegged for a summer release in 2026.
A trade is technically an option. It’s extremely unlikely
Seven years ago, the Browns net a second round pick by taking Brock Osweiler’s onerous contract off the Texans’ hands. But Osweiler had three years remaining on his contract at an average cost of $18 million annually — roughly 10.7 percent of the league’s $167 million salary cap in 2017. Only $37 million of his $72 million contract was guaranteed. Cleveland released him in the preseason and ate $16 million in the process, but it was a palatable decision.
Watson, on the other hand, is set to take up nearly 23 percent of his team’s salary cap space in 2025. An acquiring team wouldn’t take that full hit, but would still have to dedicate $46 million in space to the league’s worst quarterback in a deal. Unless the Browns are willing to ship out more first round picks just to get rid of Watson — and they really, truly, should not — the man is untradable.
The hidden cost is losing a two-time NFL Coach of the Year because his quarterback is garbage to the core and cannot be benched
Kevin Stefanski was the NFL’s coach of the year in 2020 when he pushed Baker Mayfield to the franchise’s first postseason win since 1994. He earned a second trophy in 2023 when his Browns rallied around Joe Flacco in an 11-win season after Watson was injured in Week 6.
Stefanski is 38-35 in the regular season as Cleveland’s head coach. He is the first Browns coach since Marty Schottenheimer to have a winning record. He is unlikely to remain that way if Watson remains his starting quarterback.
Given his ability to win with other passers, you’d think Stefanski would be open to a change. One of the league’s more respected head coaches wouldn’t purposefully handicap himself each week, which suggests the edict to keep Watson in the lineup comes from higher up. If Haslam wants his prized quarterback as the starter no matter what and there’s no easy way to escape Watson’s financial commitments, the easier decision here would be to fire his fifth-year head coach and install someone he thinks can fix a broken quarterback.
Of course, the most likely savior is probably the guy who guided Baker Mayfield to a postseason win one season after he threw 21 interceptions and made it back to the playoffs with a 38-year-old Joe Flacco signed off the street in November. Unfortunately, the Browns do not operate on sensibility or logic. They are an engine powered by stubbornness, frustration and a lack of foresight.
This is all to say some lucky team could wind up interviewing Stefanski for a job next January, where he’d be given a chance to make Trevor Lawrence a franchise quarterback once more or guide Aaron Rodgers to one last Super Bowl run. Watson is dragging down everything about Cleveland, from failing to create a cohesive offense to overtaxing a tired defense to teaching his head coach the definition of insanity.
That’s the on-field cost of keeping Deshaun Watson. Now the Browns have to weigh it against the actual, very real financial cost of getting rid of the league’s worst starting quarterback.
