Russia is inching closer to withdrawing from the international treaty that bans the testing of nuclear weapons.
On Wednesday, the Russian parliament passed a law that intends to reverse the country's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). President Vladimir Putin will now need to sign the law in order to end Russia's previous ratification of the global agreement.
The move is likely to increase tensions between Russia and the United States, and add to concern over the country's war against Ukraine.
Russia's withdrawal from the treaty has been expected for some time. At the start of October, an envoy for Moscow confirmed Russia's plans and explained it didn't mean the government intended to resume nuclear tests.
"Russia plans to revoke ratification (which took place in the year 2000) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty," said Mikhail Ulyanov. He added: "The aim is to be on equal footing with the US who signed the Treaty, but didn’t ratify it. Revocation doesn’t mean the intention to resume nuclear tests."
Despite the remarks, some fear that this could signal Russia's intention to eventually resume nuclear testing and even start a new nuclear arms race.
So what is the treaty that Russia could be withdrawing from?
What is the treaty to ban nuclear weapons testing?
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a global agreement that prohibits all nuclear test explosions. This includes testing on land, underground or in water. The treaty sets up a number of agreements that allow for the creation of a global network of monitoring stations.
Introduced in 1996 and signed by 187 countries, the agreement was intended to reduce nuclear tensions around the world and be an impetus to the eventual eradication of nuclear weapons altogether. A number of countries that possess nuclear weapons have signed the treaty but some of them have not ratified the treaty. Ratification refers to when a nation's representatives vote to approve an agreement, and it is signed into law.
Apart from North Korea, no countries are known to have carried out nuclear weapons testing since the 1990s.
Why did the nuclear test ban treaty happen?
The CTBT was preceded by another nuclear agreement that was introduced during the Cold War following the Cuban Missile Crisis. At the time, the US and Russia appeared to be on the brink of triggering a nuclear conflict, which led to them agreeing to put an end to nuclear weapons testing as part of the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963.
More than three decades later, the CTBT emerged, further strengthening the global consensus against more nuclear aggression.
Who is signed up to the treaty?
As it stands, the CTBT is not legally valid as it didn't receive the number of ratifications it required. However, it has remains a global standard that most countries align with.
Although 187 countries have signed the treaty, just 178 have ratified it.
Nine of the counties that have signed the treaty possess nuclear weapons. Among those nine nuclear powers, just the UK, France and Russia went on to ratify the treaty – meaning it has received formal approval in their legislatures.
The US, China and Israel signed the treaty but didn't ratify it.
A list of agreements and ratifications can be found here.
Why is Russia pulling out?
Relations between Russia and many Western nations have been tense for a while. This escalated when Putin began the invasion of Ukraine, largely isolating the country from the global community.
Russia has suggested that its reversal of the ratification means that it is now aligned with the US position on nuclear weapons testing.
Although Putin hasn't addressed the treaty withdrawal, other officials have maintained that Russia won't start testing nuclear weapons unless the US does.
Despite the remarks, Putin's decision to pull out of the treaty may act as a political signal. It may also prompt other nations to consider pulling out and resuming nuclear testing – prompting a nuclear arms race.
