The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have both clinched their spots in the postseason, but the race to earn the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC — and the home-field advantage that comes with it — is still playing out.
While the Chiefs (11-1) have maintained the best record in the conference, the Bills (10-2), who defeated Kansas City in Week 11, are hot on the defending Super Bowl champions’ tails.
According to win probability charts from Pro Football Network, Buffalo has an 18% chance of winning out and clinching the top seed compared to Kansas City’s odds of 7.5%.
The Bills’ most likely outcome — at 23% — would involve one loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 15.
The Chiefs’ win probability is currently at its lowest in Weeks 17 and 18, where they have a 50.7% and 49.3% chance to win respectively.
In the aggregate, Kansas City is equally likely to win out or go 4-1 over its last five games at 7.5%.
Check out the full win probability charts for both the Chiefs and Bills below:
Kansas City is favored in all but its last two games where it currently faces 50-50 odds. As such, the Chiefs’ most likely path to the No. 1 seed will involve a loss to either the Pittsburgh Steelers or Denver Broncos in Weeks 17 or 18, respectively, and a Buffalo loss to Detroit in Week 15.
Should Kansas City and the Bills end the regular season with the same record, Buffalo would win the No. 1 seed due to its head-to-head victory over the Chiefs.
